SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through July 15

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through July 15.

Some key points up front:

  • Union playoff chances: The Union now have a 41.5% chance of making the MLS playoffs, up from 18.2%.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel have a 40.1% chance to make the USL playoffs, down from 68.1%.
  • Largest movers: Orlando City gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS in the past week, and Chicago Fire had the largest drop.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Atlanta United’s Michael Parkhurst and the New York Red Bulls’ Sean Davis. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Jay Simpson.
Interactive Charts

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in recent MLS matches, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia increasing from 18th to 15th from the last published forecast.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
Cory Burke213115460.33
Jay Simpson110382.368
Mark McKenzie0222211790
Marcus Epps010106090
Raymon Gaddis-126271429-0.063
Anthony Fontana-11299-0.909
Derrick Jones-11296-0.938
Alejandro Bedoya-328311753-0.154
Warren Creavalle-3811487-0.554
Fabian Herbers-325302-0.894
Keegan Rosenberry-427311800-0.2
Haris Medunjanin-423271560-0.231
Ilsinho-41115812-0.443
Matthew Real-415236-1.525
Borek Dockal-522271616-0.278
Fabinho-6410481-1.123
Fafa Picault-722291282-0.491
David Accam-713201027-0.613
Andre Blake-829371980-0.364
Auston Trusty-829371980-0.364
Jack Elliott-8715801-0.899
CJ Sapong-1116271493-0.663
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips25391416371.374
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst25502521201.061
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan23482520141.028
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel23492620611.004
New York Red BullsSean Davis21381716681.133
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez21452420130.939
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron21482721050.898
New York Red BullsLuis Robles20402017101.053
New York Red BullsTim Parker19351616201.056
New York Red BullsTyler Adams18331515191.066
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez18442618770.863
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence17331615390.994
New York Red BullsAaron Long17372018080.846
New York CityJesus Medina16402417160.839
New York CitySean Johnson16432719800.727
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz16442820290.71
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez16452920510.702
New York CityAlexander Callens16452920550.701
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba15271211011.226
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar15321713351.011
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra15331814840.91
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour15402516580.814
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo14251110091.249
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann14291511421.103
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot14271311501.096
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton14251111571.089
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe14342014650.86
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói14362217130.736
New York CityAlexander Ring14372317250.73
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose131967311.601
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.167
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella13241112600.929
Portland TimbersDiego Chara13301714400.812
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing13382515500.755
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.484
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer12291713770.784
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell12281613800.783
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler12332116650.649
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm12362417070.633
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco11241312370.8
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney11332213650.725
New York CityEbenezer Ofori11281713720.722
FC DallasMichael Barrios11281714740.672
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.115
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros101888721.032
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi10221210160.886
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin10332317390.518
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi10403019800.455
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez10403019800.455
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia10403019800.455
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz91674301.884
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen920118120.998
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha9251610810.749
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado9302113950.581
Houston DynamoEric Alexander9312214360.564
FC DallasRoland Lamah9302115740.515
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza9362717810.455
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis9382918500.438
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber9443519180.422
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar81022452.939
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl81467171.004
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante819119870.729
New York CityMaxime Chanot8211310330.697
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley8322414300.503
New York CityBen Sweat8292114380.501
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman8342615110.477
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco8271915560.463
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri8332517620.409
FC DallasReto Ziegler8332517820.404
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman8403218000.4
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala8332518000.4
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller8453719800.364
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe718117980.789
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes7211411530.546
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius7312412180.517
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic7322512430.507
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani7332614070.448
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel7322514770.427
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto7302315210.414
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas7352816280.387
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti7312417090.369
FC DallasMatt Hedges7332618900.333
FC DallasReggie Cannon7342719320.326
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos61264261.268
New York CityRodney Wallace61157020.769
Portland TimbersAndres Flores617117510.719
Portland TimbersAndy Polo61487830.69
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey6241811500.47
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos6251911620.465
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela6292313760.392
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham6443820700.261
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik6443820700.261
New York CityJonathan Lewis5721812.486
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.376
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.275
New York CityRonald Matarrita515106360.708
FC DallasKellyn Acosta516116740.668
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande519147660.587
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.584
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert519148180.55
FC DallasJimmy Maurer516119000.5
New York CityDavid Villa520159100.495
New York Red BullsConnor Lade518139640.467
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger5241910650.423
Toronto FCAuro5231810640.423
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren5241911300.398
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro5221714400.312
Houston DynamoJoe Willis5302515300.294
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah5262116270.277
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara5322717830.252
New York Red BullsBen Mines440904
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV4841622.222
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark41174890.736
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos421177440.484
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.429
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera418149420.382
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez420169490.379
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor4262211780.306
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez4312715040.239
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye4332915820.228
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell4282415950.226
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo4292516090.224
Columbus CrewArtur4292518450.195
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas330367.5
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton341893.034
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.784
Columbus CrewPatrick Mullins3521122.411
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.598
Seattle SoundersRaúl Ruidíaz3522710.996
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.989
New York CityThomas McNamara3633030.891
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor31073320.813
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.684
Toronto FCChris Mavinga31075000.54
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead313105650.478
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic31186080.444
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng316136820.396
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski315127640.353
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez3201710800.25
FC DallasVictor Ulloa3181510970.246
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini3292613430.201
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin3201713790.196
Columbus CrewPedro Santos3211813840.195
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi3333015860.17
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo3312816220.166
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco3333016490.164
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara3363317000.159
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio3343117120.158
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba3363319530.138
Toronto FCAyo Akinola220247.5
Los Angeles GalaxySheanon Williams220394.615
DC UnitedBruno Miranda231862.093
Sporting Kansas CityGianluca Busio2201031.748
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams2641761.023
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.709
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.682
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa2532680.672
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera2532740.657
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio2973000.6
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal2643070.586
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez2533310.544
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi2753350.537
FC DallasTesho Akindele2753970.453
FC DallasCristian Colman2864340.415
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia2754500.4
Toronto FCJozy Altidore2865080.354
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke213115460.33
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.212105680.317
Real Salt LakeNick Besler214126220.289
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho219177700.234
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso212108160.221
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta215138680.207
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson2151311870.152
Toronto FCAlexander Bono2302815300.118
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla2323017410.103
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez2353318510.097
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.182
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.5
Montreal ImpactMathieu Choiniere110263.462
MinnesotaRomario Ibarra121352.571
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.368
Columbus CrewEdward Opoku121461.957
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.552
New York CityValentin Castellanos121651.385
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.324
MinnesotaAngelo Rodriguez110691.304
Chicago FireJon Bakero121751.2
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro132851.059
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann121901
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler1211010.891
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro1211040.865
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.573
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic1431850.486
Atlanta UnitedEric Remedi1431930.466
DC UnitedKofi Opare1321970.457
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna1652190.411
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson1872630.342
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.333
San Jose EarthquakesGuram Kashia1322700.333
San Jose EarthquakesLuis Felipe1322700.333
DC UnitedWayne Rooney1653110.289
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin1983530.255
Columbus CrewJon Kempin1984500.2
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.2
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye111105290.17
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres1985350.168
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic118176940.13
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan112117030.128
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco111107060.127
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes116157960.113
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp113128440.107
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera117168950.101
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell113129560.094
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee1151411180.081
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna1242313340.067
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo1333216200.056
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain1212016120.056
Toronto FCMichael Bradley1353417770.051
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury1313017820.051
New England RevolutionMatt Turner1363519800.045
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful1302919800.045
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller0363617890
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes0292920480
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall0232316480
Toronto FCMarky Delgado0232310360
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie0222211790
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei0222218900
Columbus CrewZack Steffen0212116200
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall0202011890
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva0202012870
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi0181810420
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget0171711130
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho017179360
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea017179760
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo017178390
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum014149070
FC DallasJacori Hayes013139160
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez013136060
Orlando CityStefano Pinho012125350
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps010106090
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez010106370
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards0998090
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis0995370
Columbus CrewMike Grella0883990
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez0664590
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell0664560
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem0666600
New England RevolutionChris Tierney0553090
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Smith0551800
Chicago FirePatrick McLain0442240
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins0442250
Chicago FireDrew Conner0332890
Colorado RapidsKellyn Acosta0331800
New York CityKwame Awuah0331430
Toronto FCDrew Moor0332560
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez022690
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey0222080
New York CityBrad Stuver022900
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace011290
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam011900
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu000160
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen000540
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu000930
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem000120
DC UnitedDane Kelly00030
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey00010
FC DallasJesús Ferreira00030
Houston DynamoMac Steeves000260
Houston DynamoRonaldo Peña000180
Los Angeles FCDanilo Silva00060
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter000760
New York CityCedric Hountondji00010
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo00010
Portland TimbersJeremy Ebobisse00080
Portland TimbersModou Jadama000270
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland00010
Real Salt LakeTaylor Peay00010
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee0002460
Toronto FCAidan Daniels000120
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan-124251980-0.045
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell-134351960-0.046
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-134351819-0.049
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-136371697-0.053
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela-122231695-0.053
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis-126271429-0.063
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-115161433-0.063
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna-127281287-0.07
New York CityJo Inge Berget-126271287-0.07
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia-123241233-0.073
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-115161063-0.085
Chicago FireDiego Campos-120211034-0.087
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam-110111015-0.089
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg-11415974-0.092
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu-11415945-0.095
MinnesotaCollen Warner-12021939-0.096
Orlando CityLamine Sane-11920923-0.098
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.104
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta-11819848-0.106
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-11213823-0.109
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-11112759-0.119
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin-11112743-0.121
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña-11819735-0.122
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-156689-0.131
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa-11011681-0.132
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-1910642-0.14
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.16
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-1910487-0.185
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund-178450-0.2
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-167431-0.209
Orlando CityEarl Edwards Jr.-1910392-0.23
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-189353-0.255
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida-178290-0.31
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.333
MinnesotaMason Toye-145259-0.347
Montreal ImpactShamit Shome-156249-0.361
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.409
DC UnitedRussell Canouse-123209-0.431
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-134202-0.446
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.448
FC DallasMarquinhos Pedroso-145180-0.5
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.506
FC DallasKris Reaves-112168-0.536
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.57
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112157-0.573
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.643
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal-101123-0.732
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.756
Colorado RapidsGiles Barnes-101115-0.783
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-112105-0.857
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana-11299-0.909
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones-11296-0.938
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.938
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-13494-0.957
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-1
Seattle SoundersBryan Meredith-12390-1
Chicago FireStefan Cleveland-11290-1
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.011
FC DallasEma Twumasi-10145-2
New England RevolutionBrian Wright-10136-2.5
Orlando CityDillon Powers-10136-2.5
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.-11229-3.103
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.6
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10124-3.75
New England RevolutionCristhian Machado-1013-30
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-230321964-0.092
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo-226281442-0.125
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun-231331430-0.126
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-224261392-0.129
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet-221231238-0.145
DC UnitedPaul Arriola-221231176-0.153
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-21719933-0.193
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe-22022900-0.2
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-21517819-0.22
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-21719793-0.227
Chicago FireAlan Gordon-21214783-0.23
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist-21012740-0.243
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry-21517720-0.25
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen-21113711-0.253
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-2810630-0.286
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257594-0.303
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-2911576-0.312
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey-21012554-0.325
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-2810495-0.364
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-21012466-0.386
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-2911392-0.459
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-235304-0.592
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-246289-0.623
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-235251-0.717
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-235206-0.874
DC UnitedJalen Robinson-235159-1.132
Houston DynamoEric Bird-202148-1.216
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.224
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.364
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.195
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-20274-2.432
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar-20265-2.769
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20242-4.286
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.625
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.182
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-20221-8.571
Los Angeles FCAndre Horta-20213-13.846
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-328311753-0.154
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski-325281525-0.177
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-327301428-0.189
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-318211390-0.194
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-328311384-0.195
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara-327301388-0.195
Houston DynamoLeonardo-320231291-0.209
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-325281283-0.21
DC UnitedOniel Fisher-321241248-0.216
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-320231201-0.225
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-321241177-0.229
DC UnitedChris Durkin-323261142-0.236
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler-31720947-0.285
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-31619919-0.294
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-31013878-0.308
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-31215769-0.351
Real Salt LakeSunny-31013743-0.363
MinnesotaEric Miller-31013602-0.449
Colorado RapidsKortne Ford-358550-0.491
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.514
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-31013508-0.531
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-31013496-0.544
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle-3811487-0.554
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-3912435-0.621
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-325302-0.894
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis-314296-0.912
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-347276-0.978
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa-358274-0.985
Orlando CityShane O'Neill-358263-1.027
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-314174-1.552
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-314154-1.753
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303110-2.455
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.477
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-30394-2.872
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-428321955-0.184
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-431351901-0.189
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-427311800-0.2
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-435391782-0.202
Columbus CrewWil Trapp-420241703-0.211
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-434381635-0.22
DC UnitedYamil Asad-428321596-0.226
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-430341587-0.227
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin-423271560-0.231
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-417211480-0.243
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-41418900-0.4
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317836-0.431
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-41115812-0.443
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-41317737-0.488
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-41014734-0.49
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-41317731-0.492
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-41216629-0.572
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-4913628-0.573
Toronto FCJay Chapman-41014618-0.583
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-4812597-0.603
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.667
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-437422-0.853
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437392-0.918
Houston DynamoJared Watts-437389-0.925
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-1
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437334-1.078
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.385
Chicago FireRaheem Edwards-426249-1.446
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.525
Chicago FireNicolas Hasler-415148-2.432
MinnesotaMaximiniano-404147-2.449
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-4
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-522271616-0.278
Orlando CityChris Mueller-527321446-0.311
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-525301440-0.312
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-522271391-0.324
Chicago FireDax McCarty-522271359-0.331
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-522271270-0.354
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-522271168-0.385
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-516211167-0.386
Chicago FireMo Adams-51217884-0.509
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-51621863-0.521
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-51419789-0.57
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-51217763-0.59
DC UnitedUlises Segura-5914616-0.731
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-51419542-0.83
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.833
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-5914443-1.016
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510426-1.056
MinnesotaCollin Martin-5510338-1.331
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.442
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-505173-2.601
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-516116-3.879
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.327
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-632382043-0.264
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-629351835-0.294
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-626321820-0.297
Colorado RapidsJack Price-625311780-0.303
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-626321765-0.306
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-630361710-0.316
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-628341530-0.353
Orlando CityDom Dwyer-626321346-0.401
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-620261343-0.402
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-618241334-0.405
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar-614201333-0.405
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-622281318-0.41
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-614201161-0.465
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-619251122-0.481
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-6713902-0.599
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-61420818-0.66
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-61319805-0.671
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-61117790-0.684
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-6713648-0.833
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-61218622-0.868
Orlando CityScott Sutter-61218577-0.936
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-6410481-1.123
Toronto FCClint Irwin-6713450-1.2
DC UnitedIan Harkes-6511273-1.978
Orlando CityDonny Toia-617238-2.269
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.422
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-733402070-0.304
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-732392010-0.313
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-736431980-0.318
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-730371732-0.364
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-727341522-0.414
Orlando CityWill Johnson-723301444-0.436
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-722291282-0.491
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-713201027-0.613
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-714211022-0.616
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-72027995-0.633
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-71825992-0.635
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71118732-0.861
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-71017715-0.881
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-7411570-1.105
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-7411563-1.119
Orlando CityVictor Giro-7411305-2.066
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-7310273-2.308
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-829371980-0.364
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-829371980-0.364
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-830381862-0.387
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-828361840-0.391
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-832401827-0.394
MinnesotaIbson-832401784-0.404
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-822301513-0.476
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-819271209-0.596
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-816241170-0.615
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-81422910-0.791
Chicago FireElliot Collier-81422904-0.796
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-81523892-0.807
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-8715801-0.899
Orlando CityChris Schuler-81422695-1.036
Orlando CityTony Rocha-81119671-1.073
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.263
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-8614456-1.579
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-8614398-1.809
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-819275-2.618
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-932411980-0.409
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-932411969-0.411
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-930391936-0.418
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-930391572-0.515
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-923321422-0.57
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-919281070-0.757
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-91019731-1.108
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-9514610-1.328
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-1030402160-0.417
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-1027371980-0.455
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-1030401747-0.515
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1022321620-0.556
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-1023331537-0.586
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-1016261295-0.695
Chicago FireTony Tchani-101323825-1.091
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-1128391802-0.549
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-1129401775-0.558
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-1116271493-0.663
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-1116271395-0.71
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-11718782-1.266
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-1228402100-0.514
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-1230421846-0.585
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-1228401794-0.602
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-1227391786-0.605
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-1227391670-0.647
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-1216281114-0.969
Orlando CityJosue Colman-13922714-1.639
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-1429431927-0.654
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-1425391485-0.848
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1530451842-0.733
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-1523381821-0.741
Orlando CityRJ Allen-151227876-1.541
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1618341273-1.131
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-1830481814-0.893
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-1826441678-0.965
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-20929891-2.02

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has increased from an 18.2% to a 41.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union increased from a 0-ish% to a 0.1% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 10.8% to 14.9%.

Philadelphia increased from a 10.8% chance to a 15.0% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast67.419.96.57.670.441.32911.8391002131.40NA65.3NA1.92.53.6
New York Red BullsEast66.921.29.63.269.638.930.721.82310025.233.30NA3001.92.63.4
New York CityEast65.219.78.26.16644.221.841.78210011.3160NA62.1NA2.33.34.6
Portland TimbersWest64.418.15.810.16042.817.231.81399.919.310.80NA23.8NA1.83.93.9
FC DallasWest63.818.77.67.856.445.31151.71799.98.87.70NA9.101.94.14.7
Los Angeles FCWest59.517.39.17.772.95814.961.67799.36.90.834.6NA39.2NA35.85.6
Sporting Kansas CityWest54.315.510.77.863.150.212.891.47591.72.400NA100NA4.587.7
Los Angeles GalaxyWest53.115.612.26.265.555.69.9101.4388.51.500NA1.5NA4.88.48.4
Columbus CrewEast5315.211.47.544.642.71.981.477991.800NA2.1NA4.18.67.6
Seattle SoundersWest49.614.413.26.442.338.93.471.48264.8100NA10610.210.2
Real Salt LakeWest47.814.214.55.349.561.6-12.1121.26844.60.100NA0.1NA6.511.111.7
New England RevolutionEast43.511.112.710.256.658.1-1.5141.22554.20.200NA0.2NA6.51413
Vancouver WhitecapsWest42.811.714.67.752.367.9-15.6151.228.100NA31.931.9NA8.114.414.8
Philadelphia UnionEast42.512.817.244657.4-11.5131.25551.10.1017NA17NA6.714.213.4
Toronto FCEast40.711.315.96.861.463.4-2111.38732.40.20NA68.168.107.515.614.9
Montreal ImpactEast40.512.618.72.742.858.5-15.7171.15232.800NA00NA7.415.515
DC UnitedEast39.910.314.69.157.660-2.5161.18826.60.100NA0.1NA7.916.315.8
Houston DynamoWest38.610.416.27.457.255.61.6181.1131.90035.8NA35.8NA9.21717.1
Minnesota UnitedWest37.71220.21.850.368.7-18.4201.0631.3000NA0NA9.317.317.4
Orlando CityEast33.910.320.7350.978.1-27.2211.042.3000NA0NA9.919.719.6
Chicago FireEast33.89.118.46.550.667.9-17.3191.0831.70012.7NA12.7NA1019.919.9
Colorado RapidsWest307.719.46.840.358.6-18.2230.9340000NA0011.221.621.6
San Jose EarthquakesWest28.56.418.39.350.162.4-12.2220.9410000NA0NA11.522.122.1

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast-2.3-1.20.11.1-0.41.6-2.10-0.0510-3.8-9.80NA-7.4NA0.30.30.3
New York Red BullsEast0.80.2-0.20-1.1-0.4-0.7-10.01203.4170NA6.30-0.3-0.7-0.4
New York CityEast-1.4-0.8-0.21-0.70.8-1.500.00100.100NA-0.5NA0.10.10.1
Portland TimbersWest1.50.6-0.4-0.21.6-1.73.2-20.07307.480NA10.1NA-0.6-0.9-0.7
FC DallasWest-4.5-1.41.6-0.1-2.13.3-5.63-0.135-0.1-7-150NA-800.51.30.9
Los Angeles FCWest-1.6-0.50.7-0.1-1.2-1.100-0.051-0.5-1.1-0.21.2NA0.7NA0.20.40.4
Sporting Kansas CityWest2.51-0.6-0.3-1-31.900.0568100NA0NA-0.7-1.1-1.3
Los Angeles GalaxyWest-2-0.60.9-0.3-0.70.9-1.63-0.043-7.2-1.200NA-1.2NA0.60.91.2
Columbus CrewEast0.70.2-0.20.10.3-0.50.800.0390.60.500NA0.6NA-0.2-0.2-0.2
Seattle SoundersWest2.81-0.8-0.21.6-0.82.3-30.06617.20.600NA0.60-0.7-1.5-1.7
Real Salt LakeWest10.4-0.3-0.20.1-0.30.4-10.01-0.3000NA0NA-0.2-0.6-0.4
New England RevolutionEast-0.1-0.3-0.50.82.11.90.20-0.01220.100NA0.1NA-0.1-0.1-0.2
Vancouver WhitecapsWest0.2-0.3-0.811-0.51.5-10.015-3.800NA-0.4-0.4NA-0.1-0.3-0.2
Philadelphia UnionEast-1.1-0.40.5-0.2-1.61.2-2.91-0.047-5.1-0.100.8NA0.6NA0.20.50.5
Toronto FCEast1.20-1.11.11.5-0.31.800.061100.20NA0.40.40-0.5-0.9-1.2
Montreal ImpactEast-1.3-0.7-0.20.9-1-0.4-0.6-1-0.02-8.400NA00NA0.30.60.7
DC UnitedEast0.4-0.2-0.91.2-0.3-1.30.9-10.0082.8000NA0NA-0.2-0.4-0.5
Houston DynamoWest-2.7-0.81.1-0.3-3.2-0.8-2.43-0.098-7.300-1.1NA-1.1NA0.61.51.4
Minnesota UnitedWest-2.6-0.80.9-0.1-10.9-1.90-0.05-6.1000NA0NA0.51.41.3
Orlando CityEast-0.7-0.5-0.40.91.81.800-0.011-1000NA0NA0.20.40.3
Chicago FireEast-1.1-0.30.4-0.1-0.60.2-0.80-0.051-0.700-0.9NA-0.9NA0.20.50.5
Colorado RapidsWest2.50.9-0.7-0.30.8-0.71.610.0730000NA000-0.4-0.4
San Jose EarthquakesWest4.71.6-1.4-0.23.5-25.5-10.1530000NA0NA-0.2-0.6-0.6

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL

Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem declining from 12th to 16th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem decreased from a 68.1% to a 40.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship decreased from 0.8% to 0.4%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

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