SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through June 3

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through June 3.  This does not include last night’s USOC matches.

Some key points up front:

  • Union playoff chances: The Union now have a 41.2% chance of making the MLS playoffs, up from 36.1%.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel are up to a 75.5% chance to make the USL playoffs, up from 42.6%.
  • Largest movers: The Portland Timbers gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS, and the Colorado Rapids the largest drop.  These changes were more motivated by the model’s changes than necessarily the results this past week.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Sporting Kansas City’s Dániel Sallói and the New York Red Bulls’ Sean Davis.  The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Marcus Epps and Mark McKenzie.
  • Model Changes: There were sizable model changes made to weighting scheme of each match’s performance.
    • A previous contributor to the weight of a match was the goal differential, being used to judge the certainty of the outcome.  This goal differential was transformed logarithmic-ally upon a thoughtful, but arbitrary scale, and ties were treated the same as a 2-goal-differential result. Going forward:
      • For matches where I have stats (MLS matches and USOC or CCL matches with MLS teams in them), a model is used to predict the W/L/T probabilities to determine the certainty/luck of the outcome given the stat-line.
      • I averaged the above model results by Goal-Differential and used this average certainty/luck as a substitute for matches where I don’t have said data.
      • This change will noticeably result in lower odds of ties, given that, as we know, ties are one goal for either side away from a different result, and will therefore likely have less obvious stat-lines pointing towards a draw with certainty.
    • Another contributor to the weight of a match is how similar the player-minutes-distribution of a match is to recent trends, so that clubs which overhaul their teams are no longer associated with previous results.
      • Previously I filled in this weight for matches without player data (those without MLS teams) by using the median value for those matches that do have player data.
        • However, this median value is considerably lower than last year’s, which is causing the model to differentiate less for USL and NWSL expectations, due to a lack of confidence is any of their match results.
        • Instead of this median value over all matches, it now uses the average value of these matches over the previous month.
        • This will cause a large shift for USL and NWSL projections in the magnitude of the differences between clubs.  I believe this is a better reflection of reality.
Interactive Charts

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in individual matches last week, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia increasing from 13th to 11th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
Jay Simpson110382.368
Marcus Epps1764080.221
Haris Medunjanin0161611890
Mark McKenzie0996390
Cory Burke0553070
Anthony Fontana011910
Alejandro Bedoya-115161189-0.076
Raymon Gaddis-11314889-0.101
Fabinho-134301-0.299
Fabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Derrick Jones-10126-3.462
Warren Creavalle-202186-0.968
Keegan Rosenberry-315181260-0.214
Ilsinho-3710554-0.487
Fafa Picault-4913723-0.498
Matthew Real-415236-1.525
Andre Blake-516211350-0.333
Auston Trusty-516211350-0.333
Borek Dockal-514191122-0.401
David Accam-5813826-0.545
Jack Elliott-5712711-0.633
CJ Sapong-710171088-0.579
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
New York Red BullsSean Davis17271010201.5
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói1726911741.303
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst17331614011.092
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips1525109771.382
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan15311612941.043
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel15321713451.004
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton1421710171.239
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler14281413050.966
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi14281413500.933
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez14281413500.933
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia14281413500.933
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe14331914080.895
New York Red BullsTyler Adams132187991.464
New York Red BullsLuis Robles1326139901.182
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.167
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza13271413320.878
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron13311813890.842
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.484
New York Red BullsTim Parker122199001.2
New York Red BullsAaron Long12251311130.97
New York CityJesus Medina11261510310.96
FC DallasReto Ziegler11221111530.859
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez11281713140.753
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann1020107651.176
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.115
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer1020108931.008
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot1023139710.927
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez10271711570.778
New York CityAlexander Callens10302013350.674
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez10302013370.673
New York CitySean Johnson10302013500.667
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose91124052
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo91676301.286
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi91566441.258
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado924158750.926
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence921129090.891
FC DallasRoland Lamah91899140.886
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley9251610250.79
FC DallasMatt Hedges9211211700.692
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis9281911990.676
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz81242882.5
FC DallasKellyn Acosta81244621.558
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe81575521.304
FC DallasMichael Barrios81688780.82
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing823159280.776
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti8191110340.696
Houston DynamoEric Alexander8251710410.692
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas8261810740.67
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour8271911180.644
FC DallasReggie Cannon8221412320.584
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara8221412600.571
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz8271913090.55
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella71146301
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar717107150.881
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha71697150.881
Houston DynamoJoe Willis720138100.778
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger723168690.725
Portland TimbersDiego Chara719129000.7
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo719129100.692
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto721149130.69
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes7181110250.615
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell7201311900.529
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi7282112170.518
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor6601354
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros6933681.467
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark61154111.314
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba61375061.067
Portland TimbersAndres Flores61265121.055
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey61376320.854
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm6221610170.531
New York CityAlexander Ring6231711040.489
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah6181211770.459
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber6292312400.435
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba6272114130.382
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful6221614400.375
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.376
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl5833421.316
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.275
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez5833601.25
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic517126040.745
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia518137530.598
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell515107630.59
New York CityEbenezer Ofori516117680.586
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.584
New York CityDavid Villa520158820.51
FC DallasJimmy Maurer516119000.5
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara521169180.49
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra519149220.488
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez523189480.475
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela5241910800.417
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman5241910800.417
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco5201511410.394
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo5231811720.384
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller5292412600.357
Columbus CrewArtur5211613960.322
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain5211614160.318
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes5211615080.298
New York Red BullsBen Mines440904
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos4511562.308
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry4731802
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson4842501.44
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead4843381.065
New York CityRonald Matarrita4953411.056
FC DallasCristian Colman4843990.902
New York CityRodney Wallace4844190.859
New York Red BullsConnor Lade41175310.678
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe416125400.667
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert41396010.599
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña417136110.589
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney41176450.558
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor417137140.504
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren417137190.501
Orlando CityDom Dwyer417137200.5
Orlando CityLamine Sane419157650.471
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco414108050.447
FC DallasJacori Hayes41398160.441
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.429
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun420168910.404
Toronto FCAuro421179600.375
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin4201611090.325
Columbus CrewZack Steffen4151112600.286
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez4262213160.274
New England RevolutionMatt Turner4272314400.25
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas330367.5
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV330416.585
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.784
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic3411032.621
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams3631511.788
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal3301651.636
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.598
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez3412551.059
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.989
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes3853290.821
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.684
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo3964040.668
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic3854320.625
New York CityMaxime Chanot314116730.401
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez316137080.381
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet313107300.37
New York CityBen Sweat316138150.331
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco319169290.291
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel320179900.273
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio320179920.272
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna3191610010.27
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye3232011610.233
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla3262313580.199
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury3242113580.199
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela3181513730.197
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar2201116.364
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton2201412.857
New York CityJonathan Lewis220286.429
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa231622.903
Chicago FireDrew Conner2201291.395
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande2531331.353
MinnesotaMason Toye2421830.984
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.709
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.682
Columbus CrewJon Kempin2752700.667
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin2752820.638
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo2533020.596
Columbus CrewMike Grella2643320.542
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye2753400.529
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante2643570.504
Orlando CityStefano Pinho2863590.501
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia2753600.5
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa2753740.481
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez21194270.422
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan2974590.392
Portland TimbersAndy Polo2975080.354
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea2975260.342
Chicago FireDiego Campos21195300.34
FC DallasVictor Ulloa2865490.328
Chicago FireAlan Gordon2975730.314
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler213115910.305
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera212107050.255
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell21087450.242
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani215137900.228
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna218168270.218
Columbus CrewPedro Santos213119370.192
Orlando CityChris Mueller220189930.181
Toronto FCMichael Bradley2222010800.167
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar2141210970.164
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri2201811330.159
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala2201811700.154
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell2252314200.127
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.182
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.5
Chicago FireJon Bakero110194.737
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez110312.903
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.368
FC DallasTesho Akindele110402.25
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.552
DC UnitedBruno Miranda121611.475
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.324
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann121901
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler121910.989
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio1321040.865
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa1321160.776
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey1101200.75
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.573
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi1432000.45
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida1762570.35
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.333
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.1873450.261
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg1874050.222
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps1764080.221
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.2
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen1764510.2
Real Salt LakeNick Besler11094680.192
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin1984950.182
Toronto FCMarky Delgado112115080.177
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng113126410.14
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera114137140.126
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic115147220.125
Columbus CrewJosh Williams1987480.12
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman119188870.101
Toronto FCAlexander Bono119189000.1
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski117169000.1
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi117169300.097
Houston DynamoLeonardo1191810120.089
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo1191810480.086
Columbus CrewWil Trapp1121111630.077
New York CityJo Inge Berget019199380
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski0191910430
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin0161611890
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie0996390
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell0664560
New England RevolutionChris Tierney0553090
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke0553070
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta0554180
Chicago FirePatrick McLain0442240
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna0441870
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins0442230
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso0443500
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist0332450
MinnesotaCollen Warner0331410
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka0331660
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida033890
Toronto FCDrew Moor0332560
Toronto FCJustin Morrow0331230
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey0222080
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez0221540
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam011900
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana011910
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu000160
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen000540
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro000140
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu000930
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem000120
DC UnitedDane Kelly00030
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey00010
DC UnitedKofi Opare000170
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal000220
Houston DynamoMac Steeves000260
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace00010
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.000130
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter000720
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro000180
New York CityCedric Hountondji00010
New York CityKwame Awuah00030
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo00010
Orlando CityDillon Powers00020
Portland TimbersModou Jadama000270
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera00010
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland00010
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee0002460
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar000250
Toronto FCAidan Daniels000120
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham-122231350-0.067
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik-122231350-0.067
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-122231258-0.072
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-115161189-0.076
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-122231167-0.077
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara-121221169-0.077
Orlando CityWill Johnson-121221119-0.08
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis-11314889-0.101
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.104
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-11112795-0.113
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-11516725-0.124
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-11213727-0.124
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards-189724-0.124
Chicago FireMo Adams-11112719-0.125
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro-189630-0.143
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos-189622-0.145
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.16
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-189564-0.16
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho-11314543-0.166
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-1910533-0.169
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-167505-0.178
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-189483-0.186
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-1910460-0.196
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski-178416-0.216
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-1910415-0.217
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-1910388-0.232
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem-134385-0.234
Real Salt LakeSunny-145364-0.247
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund-156360-0.25
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-167326-0.276
Orlando CityScott Sutter-167311-0.289
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-134301-0.299
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.333
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-123258-0.349
Toronto FCChris Mavinga-134255-0.353
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-156241-0.373
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.409
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen-156202-0.446
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.448
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-134193-0.466
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-112193-0.466
MinnesotaCollin Martin-123192-0.469
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-134188-0.479
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.506
New York CityThomas McNamara-123171-0.526
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.57
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.643
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112140-0.643
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.756
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-112103-0.874
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.938
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-1
Houston DynamoEric Bird-10190-1
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.011
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-11287-1.034
Orlando CityDonny Toia-10161-1.475
Houston DynamoJared Watts-10145-2
New England RevolutionBrian Wright-10126-3.462
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones-10126-3.462
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.6
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10124-3.75
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-1018-11.25
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-220221305-0.138
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-225271194-0.151
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-221231098-0.164
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin-2911865-0.208
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-21618798-0.226
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-21416714-0.252
DC UnitedChris Durkin-21416690-0.261
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-246637-0.283
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-2810630-0.286
DC UnitedOniel Fisher-21012618-0.291
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta-21315603-0.299
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius-21012596-0.302
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-21214575-0.313
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-21113530-0.34
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257507-0.355
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-279450-0.4
MinnesotaEric Miller-268442-0.407
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-268401-0.449
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-279361-0.499
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos-279326-0.552
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis-235321-0.561
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-268307-0.586
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-235271-0.664
Orlando CityChris Schuler-268270-0.667
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis-202227-0.793
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle-202186-0.968
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-213177-1.017
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez-224171-1.053
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-246170-1.059
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.224
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.364
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-213127-1.417
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-202113-1.593
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-20290-2
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.195
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-21364-2.812
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-20261-2.951
Orlando CityVictor Giro-20249-3.673
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20242-4.286
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.625
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.182
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-315181260-0.214
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-316191080-0.25
Chicago FireDax McCarty-315181015-0.266
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini-31316845-0.32
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-31619746-0.362
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-31215661-0.408
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva-3811657-0.411
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-3811635-0.425
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-3710554-0.487
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.514
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-369465-0.581
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-358405-0.667
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres-358389-0.694
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-325368-0.734
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee-336360-0.75
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-325280-0.964
DC UnitedIan Harkes-325125-2.16
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.477
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303109-2.477
MinnesotaMaximiniano-303106-2.547
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-303103-2.621
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-420241185-0.304
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-419231181-0.305
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-417211102-0.327
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-416201075-0.335
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-41216999-0.36
DC UnitedYamil Asad-41721967-0.372
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-41418900-0.4
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-41418884-0.407
DC UnitedPaul Arriola-41519865-0.416
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-41620846-0.426
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317836-0.431
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-41418810-0.444
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson-4711810-0.444
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-4913723-0.498
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-41317709-0.508
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-4610572-0.629
Toronto FCJay Chapman-4913564-0.638
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.667
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-448476-0.756
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-4711446-0.807
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-448446-0.807
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-4812430-0.837
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-4913409-0.88
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437392-0.918
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-1
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437334-1.078
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp-437282-1.277
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.385
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.525
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-437218-1.651
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-4
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-523281434-0.314
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-516211350-0.333
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-516211350-0.333
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-518231244-0.362
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-519241216-0.37
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-514191122-0.401
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-518231093-0.412
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-519241080-0.417
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-519241080-0.417
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-518231080-0.417
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-515201036-0.434
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall-51015945-0.476
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall-51419869-0.518
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-5712850-0.529
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-5712839-0.536
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-5813826-0.545
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-51419820-0.549
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-51116786-0.573
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-51217767-0.587
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-51217762-0.591
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam-549732-0.615
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-51015723-0.622
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-5914720-0.625
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-5712711-0.633
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-549652-0.69
DC UnitedUlises Segura-5813602-0.748
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.833
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu-5510423-1.064
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510413-1.09
Toronto FCClint Irwin-549360-1.25
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-527360-1.25
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.442
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-516116-3.879
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.327
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-624301329-0.406
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-622281232-0.438
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-622281170-0.462
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-619251170-0.462
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-617231170-0.462
Colorado RapidsJack Price-616221170-0.462
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-615211100-0.491
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-61622973-0.555
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-61319790-0.684
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-61117759-0.711
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-61016649-0.832
Chicago FireElliot Collier-6612621-0.87
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-61016577-0.936
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-6915465-1.161
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho-6814450-1.2
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-6410373-1.448
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-628360-1.5
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-6410339-1.593
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-617277-1.949
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-617230-2.348
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.422
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-617186-2.903
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-617185-2.919
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-617125-4.32
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-724311350-0.467
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-724311350-0.467
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-724311350-0.467
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-720271342-0.469
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-717241272-0.495
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-717241185-0.532
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan-710171170-0.538
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei-710171170-0.538
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-717241149-0.548
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-710171088-0.579
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-71219777-0.811
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71017676-0.932
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-7916618-1.019
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-71118473-1.332
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-707200-3.15
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-823311334-0.54
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-822301275-0.565
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-818261196-0.602
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-816241170-0.615
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-81321973-0.74
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-81018900-0.8
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-8917858-0.839
Chicago FireTony Tchani-8917624-1.154
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.263
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-8412366-1.967
Orlando CityTony Rocha-819322-2.236
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-918271324-0.612
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-921301308-0.619
MinnesotaIbson-914231056-0.767
Orlando CityRJ Allen-9716494-1.64
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-1019291350-0.667
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-1019291350-0.667
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1016261260-0.714
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-1016261260-0.714
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-1018281257-0.716
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-10515575-1.565
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-10414565-1.593
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-10616531-1.695
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-10313522-1.724
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-1117281269-0.78
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-11819855-1.158
Orlando CityJosue Colman-11617519-1.908
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-1318311440-0.812
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-1318311440-0.812
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-1315281169-1.001
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1317301138-1.028
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-131023857-1.365
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-1415291257-1.002

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has increased from a 36.1% to a 41.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union decreased from a 0.2% to a 0.0% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

 

The Union decreased from a 1.3% to a 0.4% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win decreased from 4.8% to 4.6%.

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia decreased from a 6.0% chance to a 5.0% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast68.820.97.1671.642.429.111.83110022.947.427.2NA88.4NA1.52.23.5
FC DallasWest62.9187.18.956.842.913.951.799.39.9100NA14.702.54.55
New York Red BullsEast62.719.39.84.973.643.530.121.77399.818.912.10NA27.102.44.34.2
New York CityEast62.718.68.66.864.847.517.371.65499.86.990NA64.9NA2.54.55.3
Los Angeles FCWest62.6199.45.675.557.418.141.71399.310.79.918NA26.8NA2.54.44.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest61.717.67.68.759.536.822.761.6698.8126.112.3NA100NA2.855
Portland TimbersWest61.117.98.67.656.442.913.531.75598.512.35.211.8NA33NA2.95.25.1
Columbus CrewEast53.915109.147.236.21181.58796.94.20.20NA12.6NA4.28.67.3
Real Salt LakeWest49.915.915.92.246.762.7-16.1111.32964.20.20.10NA0.2NA610.611
New England RevolutionEast49.113.411.78.95856.71.3101.379800.600NA0.7NA5.511.410.5
Vancouver WhitecapsWest48.113.212.38.654.762.7-8121.32644.10.30NA26.726.7NA6.81212.2
Houston DynamoWest47.213.714.3660.553.27.3131.31741.70.408.2NA8.7NA6.912.212.4
Los Angeles GalaxyWest46.314.1163.955.456.6-1.2161.23136.70.100NA0.1NA7.112.713
Toronto FCEast42.112.116.15.959.764.6-4.991.38233.40.20NA55.955.907.515.414.8
Philadelphia UnionEast41.31216.75.244.853.8-9151.27327.30.1010.5NA10.6NA7.715.815.5
DC UnitedEast41.211.1157.863.863.50.4181.227.80.102.4NA2.5NA7.81615.5
Seattle SoundersWest41.112.417.6440.744.4-3.6141.27912.40.100NA0.108.515.815.9
Chicago FireEast39.610.916.36.850.464.1-13.7171.21316001.4NA1.4NA8.41716.7
Orlando CityEast39.112.219.32.653.173.6-20.6191.10716.8000.4NA0.4NA8.41716.8
Minnesota UnitedWest38.611.8193.14562.6-17.6201.0865000.8NA0.8NA9.217.217.4
Montreal ImpactEast32.810.622.4142.164.5-22.4210.9142.100NA14.414.4NA10.12019.9
San Jose EarthquakesWest27.26.920.56.652.472.7-20.3220.8540000NA0NA11.321.921.9
Colorado RapidsWest25.36.722.15.238.866.2-27.4230.790000NA0011.522.322.3

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast4.81.8-1.1-0.71.5-4.45.8-20.1330.18.525.26.6NA17.9NA-0.6-1.4-0.9
FC DallasWest0.90.60.3-13.32.31-10.0310.2-0.4-0.9-4.4NA-2.70-0.1-0.2-0.1
New York Red BullsEast0.40.30.1-0.41.83.2-1.41-0.0030.1-1.2-5.1-12.8NA-9.40000
New York CityEast0.40.1-0.20.11.61.10.5-10.0020.1-0.7-4.90NA-1.6NA0.10.10
Los Angeles FCWest0.30-0.20.21.20.11.120.0150.1-0.5-5-0.1NA-0.7NA0.10.10
Sporting Kansas CityWest-0.4-0.20.10-0.81.1-1.91-0.018-0.4-2.4-6.53.1NA0NA0.30.50.4
Portland TimbersWest1.30.5-0.40-1.3-1.40.2-10.0620.91.6-1.32.6NA6.5NA-0.3-0.5-0.4
Columbus CrewEast-3.1-0.61.9-1.2-3.61.4-51-0.067-1.6-4.9-1.40NA-14.7NA0.51.51.1
Real Salt LakeWest-0.3-0.100.1-0.9-1.40.40-0.021-5.2-0.1-0.10NA-0.2NA0.20.10.2
New England RevolutionEast-1-0.9-0.81.7-1.3-0.5-0.71-0.0310.6-0.1-0.10NA-0.1NA00.50.1
Vancouver WhitecapsWest0.60.3-0.1-0.10.2-0.30.5-10.0270.700NA11NA-0.1-0.6-0.3
Houston DynamoWest0.70.30.1-0.41.30.90.4-10.0263.70.201.3NA1.6NA-0.2-0.7-0.6
Los Angeles GalaxyWest1.80.5-0.70.22.2-2.64.8-20.0729.900-0.3NA-0.3NA-0.5-1.4-1.2
Toronto FCEast-1.5-0.9-0.41.41.13.2-2.1-1-0.006-4.7-0.10NA-3.1-3.100.30.80.6
Philadelphia UnionEast-0.3-0.10.2-0.20.11.2-1.10-0.0064.4003.8NA3.8NA-0.2-0.2-0.2
DC UnitedEast0.1-0.5-1.21.65.53.52.110.0094.90.101.6NA1.7NA-0.3-0.2-0.5
Seattle SoundersWest-1.6-0.30.8-0.50.60.40.32-0.048-7.1-0.100NA-0.200.30.60.7
Chicago FireEast-0.9-0.7-0.51.311.3-0.31-0.032-0.500-0.1NA-0.2NA0.10.30.2
Orlando CityEast-2-0.50.9-0.3-4.10-4.20-0.044-4.700-0.9NA-1NA0.40.90.9
Minnesota UnitedWest-1-0.40.20-1-1.10.10-0.04-2.800-0.3NA-0.3NA0.20.20.3
Montreal ImpactEast1.70.6-0.60-1.5-4.93.4-10.0311.100NA1.61.6NA-0.3-0.7-0.8
San Jose EarthquakesWest-1.8-0.9-0.21.20.72.5-1.91-0.0590000NA0NA0.10.40.4
Colorado RapidsWest-1-0.6-0.30.9-0.61.5-2.10-0.0210000NA0000.20.2

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL

Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem increasing from 17th to 12th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from a 42.6% to a 75.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem decreased from a 0.4% to a 0.1% chance of claiming the USL regular season title.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship decreased from 2.1% to 1.7%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*