SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through May 13th

Photo: 215 Pix

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through May 13.

Some key points up front:

  • Union playoff chances: The Union now have an 18.4 percent chance of making the MLS playoffs.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel are down to a 29.1 percent chance to make the USL playoffs.
  • Largest movers: The model gave Sporting Kansas City the biggest boost in expectations for MLS and Montreal the biggest detraction.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are the New York Red Bulls’ Sean Davis and Atlanta’s Michael Parkhurst.
  • Simulation Change: I temporarily suspended geography-projected-match-ups for the USOC projections, as it was causing too many delays for completion. This will remain until I can make speed improvements to the code.
  • Doesn’t count: These projections don’t include any of Wednesday’s matches, from MLS, USL or USOC (or anywhere else)

 

Interactive Charts

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia increasing from 21st to 17th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
Jay Simpson110382.368
Marcus Epps1211180.763
Fabinho1212110.427
Mark McKenzie0222180
Anthony Fontana011870
Derrick Jones00050
Warren Creavalle000290
Fabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Cory Burke-123157-0.573
Raymon Gaddis-257439-0.41
Fafa Picault-347383-0.705
Ilsinho-437326-1.104
Matthew Real-415236-1.525
Alejandro Bedoya-6814900-0.6
Andre Blake-6814900-0.6
Auston Trusty-6814900-0.6
Haris Medunjanin-6814900-0.6
Keegan Rosenberry-6814900-0.6
Borek Dockal-6612743-0.727
David Accam-6511698-0.774
Jack Elliott-6612682-0.792
CJ Sapong-7613805-0.783
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
New York Red BullsSean Davis152055702.368
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst1525109511.42
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói142178141.548
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton142068371.505
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan1323108441.386
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel1324118951.307
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121866921.561
New York Red BullsLuis Robles1223118101.333
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe1225139581.127
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron1124139881.002
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi1123129901
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez1123129901
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler1123129901
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia1123129901
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz101222333.863
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips101665401.667
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann101886301.429
New York Red BullsAaron Long101886631.357
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza1022129750.923
New York Red BullsTyler Adams91675661.431
New York Red BullsTim Parker91676301.286
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour922138750.926
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez921129260.875
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer81465281.364
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot81685361.343
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing818106711.073
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez820127970.903
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi821138650.832
New York CityYangel Herrera821139110.79
Orlando CityStefano Pinho7812382.647
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe71032782.266
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo71364501.4
Orlando CityDom Dwyer717106041.043
Orlando CityChris Mueller71696550.962
New York CityJesus Medina721148640.729
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber722158800.716
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell719129320.676
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah717109830.641
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful717109900.636
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor660906
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson6711812.983
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark6712392.259
New York Red BullsConnor Lade6933151.714
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey61044181.292
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence61484951.091
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley616105750.939
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar61266740.801
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado618126950.777
Houston DynamoEric Alexander618127020.769
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger620147540.716
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis619137590.711
FC DallasReto Ziegler61487930.681
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye619138320.649
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba618128730.619
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz619138850.61
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela622169000.6
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman622169000.6
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller622169000.6
Columbus CrewArtur616109460.571
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain6161010110.534
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes6161010580.51
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose550905
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella5502701.667
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.275
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi5943921.148
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba51274670.964
Portland TimbersDiego Chara51386300.714
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo51496320.712
FC DallasJacori Hayes51166440.699
Orlando CityLamine Sane518136750.667
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov51386800.662
FC DallasRoland Lamah51386940.648
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan518137200.625
FC DallasJimmy Maurer51498100.556
FC DallasMatt Hedges51498100.556
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara517129000.5
New York CityAlexander Callens521169750.462
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez521169770.461
New York CitySean Johnson521169900.455
Columbus CrewZack Steffen51499900.455
New York Red BullsBen Mines440904
Columbus CrewMike Grella4401063.396
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos4511352.667
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl4511372.628
Portland TimbersAndres Flores4732311.558
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.4952541.417
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt4952971.212
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen4733291.094
Houston DynamoJoe Willis41173601
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic41284050.889
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert4844400.818
FC DallasMauro Diaz41064620.779
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto41395420.664
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell41065760.625
FC DallasMichael Barrios4955970.603
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña417136110.589
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra415116530.551
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes41286710.537
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez4956700.537
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti41286740.534
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren417137190.501
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas418147320.492
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm417137650.471
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun420168910.404
Orlando CityJoe Bendik420169000.4
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir420169000.4
Orlando CityWill Johnson420168990.4
New England RevolutionMatt Turner418149000.4
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela41399230.39
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams341446.136
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic3411032.621
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.598
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros3411761.534
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin3631921.406
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato3522171.244
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia3632251.2
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez3412551.059
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.989
Chicago FireDiego Campos3743050.885
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar31073600.75
New York CityRodney Wallace3744000.675
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason3744090.66
Orlando CityCristian Higuita3964140.652
Toronto FCMarky Delgado31074490.601
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet31185510.49
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo31075780.467
New York CityMaxime Chanot314116730.401
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco314117810.346
FC DallasReggie Cannon31297820.345
Columbus CrewPedro Santos31298090.334
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla317148180.33
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury315128190.33
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez317148670.311
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell317148800.307
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton2201412.857
Columbus CrewJon Kempin231902
Orlando CityChris Schuler231902
FC DallasKellyn Acosta231921.957
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe2421161.552
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi2311181.525
Chicago FireDrew Conner2201271.417
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye2311601.125
New England RevolutionChris Tierney2531661.084
MinnesotaMason Toye2421830.984
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2422270.793
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752570.7
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez2642750.655
Chicago FireAlan Gordon2422780.647
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg2643150.571
FC DallasCristian Colman2533190.564
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia2973300.545
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo2863530.51
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha2753550.507
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez21194270.422
Portland TimbersAndy Polo2864290.42
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco2864300.419
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan2974590.392
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg2975080.354
Toronto FCAuro21085100.353
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara2975340.337
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco21085690.316
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell21085940.303
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman213116300.286
Colorado RapidsTim Howard21086500.277
New York CityBen Sweat214126990.258
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna213117160.251
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin214127490.24
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo215138020.224
Columbus CrewWil Trapp21199000.2
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.182
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.5
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas110156
Chicago FireJon Bakero110194.737
FC DallasTesho Akindele110233.913
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson110253.6
New York CityThomas McNamara110382.368
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.368
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.552
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110611.475
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead110631.429
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa132781.154
Orlando CityOriol Rosell121831.084
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann121901
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea1321140.789
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps1211180.763
New York CityRonald Matarrita1431790.503
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins1321970.457
Philadelphia UnionFabinho1212110.427
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic1542600.346
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso1322660.338
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin1433150.286
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho1983530.255
New York CityEbenezer Ofori1874400.205
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera1764460.202
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.2
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan1434570.197
Columbus CrewJosh Williams1544770.189
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel1985400.167
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez114135870.153
New York CityDavid Villa112115870.153
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski113126500.138
Orlando CityAmro Tarek113127030.128
New York CityAlexander Ring114137440.121
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza113127940.113
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri014147950
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala014148100
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger012127200
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi011117130
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio011116110
Toronto FCMichael Bradley011116300
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji010106990
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi010106170
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma0883600
Real Salt LakeNick Besler0773590
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill0773710
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler0774200
Chicago FireGrant Lillard0664670
MinnesotaTyrone Mears0663530
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski0663070
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell0664500
Orlando CityJonathan Spector0553150
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna0441590
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston0442400
FC DallasVictor Ulloa0443000
Orlando CityRJ Allen0441740
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary0442550
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes0441300
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera0443770
MinnesotaCollen Warner0331410
Toronto FCDrew Moor0332560
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey0222080
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo0221310
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez0221040
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie0222180
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro0221730
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis0221740
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio022920
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe022900
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale011700
DC UnitedBruno Miranda011400
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa0111040
Houston DynamoLuis Gil011190
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez011210
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana011870
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu000160
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez000170
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen000540
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu000930
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem000120
DC UnitedDane Kelly00030
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey00010
DC UnitedKofi Opare000170
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal000220
Houston DynamoMac Steeves000260
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar00010
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace00010
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen000360
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter000650
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro00010
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce000900
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel00060
New York CityCedric Hountondji00010
New York CityKwame Awuah00030
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo00010
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones00050
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle000290
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante00030
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland00010
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee0002460
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar000130
Toronto FCAidan Daniels000120
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-11516790-0.114
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-11415714-0.126
Houston DynamoLeonardo-11314640-0.141
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-11112614-0.147
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin-167613-0.147
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-189577-0.156
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-11011512-0.176
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic-11011487-0.185
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-11011465-0.194
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor-1910465-0.194
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng-1910462-0.195
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro-156450-0.2
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna-156386-0.233
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards-156368-0.245
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund-156360-0.25
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta-189339-0.265
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-178328-0.274
Orlando CityScott Sutter-167311-0.289
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney-156285-0.316
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem-134282-0.319
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.333
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-123258-0.349
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.448
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.506
MinnesotaEric Miller-123172-0.523
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.57
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke-123157-0.573
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis-101152-0.592
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-123147-0.612
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.643
Toronto FCChris Mavinga-112120-0.75
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.756
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112117-0.769
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-112114-0.789
MinnesotaCollin Martin-112112-0.804
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-1
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.011
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-11284-1.071
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-10159-1.525
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta-10158-1.552
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-10151-1.765
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-10149-1.837
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-10145-2
Orlando CityVictor Giro-10141-2.195
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-11237-2.432
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-10133-2.727
Real Salt LakeSunny-11231-2.903
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.6
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10123-3.913
Orlando CityTony Rocha-10123-3.913
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-10120-4.5
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-10119-4.737
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-1018-11.25
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-1018-11.25
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-21517810-0.222
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-21517810-0.222
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-21517810-0.222
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-21113810-0.222
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-21113810-0.222
Colorado RapidsJack Price-21113810-0.222
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-21113810-0.222
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-21012687-0.262
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-2810630-0.286
New York CityJo Inge Berget-21315622-0.289
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall-279585-0.308
Toronto FCAlexander Bono-2810540-0.333
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis-257439-0.41
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-224307-0.586
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-246295-0.61
DC UnitedOniel Fisher-224275-0.655
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-224267-0.674
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-257262-0.687
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva-224221-0.814
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-235215-0.837
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-246170-1.059
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-202149-1.208
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.224
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-246140-1.286
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-202140-1.286
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.364
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-202113-1.593
DC UnitedIan Harkes-213108-1.667
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-213108-1.667
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-20290-2
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-20290-2
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.195
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-21364-2.812
MinnesotaMaximiniano-20264-2.812
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20224-7.5
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.182
Chicago FireDax McCarty-31215841-0.321
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-31316836-0.323
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-31215805-0.335
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-31417794-0.34
Orlando CityJustin Meram-31316737-0.366
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-31215661-0.408
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-3912652-0.414
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-3811630-0.429
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-358592-0.456
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.514
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam-336509-0.53
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-3710469-0.576
DC UnitedChris Durkin-3710452-0.597
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos-369442-0.611
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres-358389-0.694
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-336384-0.703
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-347383-0.705
Chicago FireMo Adams-347375-0.72
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-314337-0.801
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos-369311-0.868
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-325256-1.055
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-325255-1.059
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-336235-1.149
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu-336200-1.35
Orlando CityJosue Colman-325163-1.656
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.477
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-303103-2.621
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-30391-2.967
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-31438-7.105
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-41317900-0.4
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-41317900-0.4
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-41317810-0.444
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan-4711810-0.444
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson-4711810-0.444
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei-4711810-0.444
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-41216768-0.469
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-41014675-0.533
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-4812631-0.571
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-4812541-0.665
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.667
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini-4812528-0.682
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-459495-0.727
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-459450-0.8
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall-41014445-0.809
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-4711431-0.835
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani-4711398-0.905
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-4610364-0.989
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-1
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437359-1.003
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-448352-1.023
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-426345-1.043
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-437326-1.104
Toronto FCClint Irwin-448270-1.333
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437266-1.353
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.525
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-404225-1.6
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-404190-1.895
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp-404116-3.103
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-4
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham-51419900-0.5
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik-51419900-0.5
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-51318900-0.5
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-51318900-0.5
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-51217892-0.504
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-51217881-0.511
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-51116823-0.547
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara-51419810-0.556
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-51419805-0.559
DC UnitedYamil Asad-5813614-0.733
DC UnitedUlises Segura-5813602-0.748
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.833
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-5712540-0.833
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-5813528-0.852
DC UnitedPaul Arriola-5611505-0.891
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-538490-0.918
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-549471-0.955
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-5813467-0.964
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-5510450-1
Chicago FireTony Tchani-5611444-1.014
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510413-1.09
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-538337-1.335
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.442
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-527225-2
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-516183-2.459
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-516180-2.5
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.327
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-6814900-0.6
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-6814900-0.6
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-6814900-0.6
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin-6814900-0.6
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-6814900-0.6
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-61420884-0.611
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-61218855-0.632
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-61319822-0.657
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-61117753-0.717
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-6612743-0.727
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-61016720-0.75
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-61016720-0.75
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-61016720-0.75
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-6511698-0.774
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-6612682-0.792
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-6713616-0.877
Chicago FireElliot Collier-6612606-0.891
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-6713569-0.949
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-6814512-1.055
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius-6511348-1.552
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-6410309-1.748
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-6410229-2.358
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.422
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-617186-2.903
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-617118-4.576
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-71320893-0.705
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-71320875-0.72
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-71118817-0.771
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-7613805-0.783
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-71017576-1.094
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-7714566-1.113
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-7815562-1.121
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho-7512270-2.333
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-718189-3.333
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-81321900-0.8
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-81321900-0.8
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-81321900-0.8
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-81321900-0.8
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-81018900-0.8
MinnesotaIbson-81119877-0.821
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-8917659-1.093
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.263
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-8513365-1.973
Toronto FCJay Chapman-8513352-2.045
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-8311315-2.286
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-8311262-2.748
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-9413475-1.705
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-10818810-1.111
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-10919616-1.461
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-111324909-1.089
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-121426990-1.091
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-121426990-1.091
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-12820825-1.309
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-131326978-1.196

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has increased from a 12.7% to a 18.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

 

The Union increased from a 0.3% to a 0.4% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 2.7% to 2.8%.

 

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia increased from a 3.0% chance to a 3.3% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast61.418.18.87.171.147.923.211.58499.319.236.97.7NA75.7NA234.1
Sporting Kansas CityWest57.316.39.48.359.241.617.651.48496.713.614.25.9NA100NA2.44.95.1
Los Angeles FCWest57.316.39.38.572.660.711.831.50796.21213.66.2NA17.5NA2.555.3
New York CityEast56.315.68.89.655.147861.47293.78106NA57.4NA3.35.56.3
New York Red BullsEast55.216.211.16.768.546.422.121.5149111.39.96.2NA21.703.566.3
Portland TimbersWest5314.810.78.554.947.47.641.50687.294.76.1NA20.2NA3.87.57.1
Columbus CrewEast52.113.99.710.348.438.99.671.44782.66.12.65.6NA29NA4.68.28.1
Orlando CityEast51.71512.36.661.965.4-3.581.42279.23.23.34.7NA7.9NA4.78.38.8
New England RevolutionEast5014.112.37.658.9580.8101.39271.12.82.14.2NA8.7NA5.39.69.8
FC DallasWest49.512.49.312.251.948.43.5121.35671.74.11.14.4NA8.805.110.29.7
Real Salt LakeWest4613.314.7654.665.5-10.9131.34253.11.60.53.6NA5.5NA6.412.512.2
Vancouver WhitecapsWest44.812.313.7846.258.8-12.6151.312441.30.2NA21.321.3NA713.713.2
Houston DynamoWest44.611.211.81160.7555.7141.31641.420.33.5NA5.6NA7.113.813.3
Seattle SoundersWest42.911.413.98.84242.2-0.2111.36233.21.60.24NA6.807.81514.5
Toronto FCEast42.311.915.46.759.858.9191.42126.21.40.1NA51.751.707.815.215.1
Minnesota UnitedWest41.612.316.94.848.863.1-14.3191.25827.40.60.22.3NA2.9NA8.215.715.5
Philadelphia UnionEast41.31114.78.442.452.3-9.9171.27918.40.402.8NA3.3NA8.316.316.3
Chicago FireEast411114.98.149.758.9-9.2161.28418.60.402.7NA3.6NA8.316.416.3
Los Angeles GalaxyWest39.611.116.66.354.865.2-10.4221.20418.20.50.12.2NA2.6NA917.217
San Jose EarthquakesWest39.510.315.18.555.766.4-10.7201.233170.302.5NA2.8NA9.117.417.2
DC UnitedEast39.110.315.6853.662.1-8.5181.2713.60.302.8NA3.2NA8.817.617.6
Colorado RapidsWest38.710.115.58.546.151.9-5.7211.21813.80.302.3NA2.509.417.917.8
Montreal ImpactEast36.310.819.2454.569.5-14.9231.1526.300NA2121NA9.519.119.1

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast0.10.40.6-0.9-4.5-0.9-3.600.010.5-3.5-4.1-0.3NA-3.5NA0.10.20.2
Sporting Kansas CityWest3.91.4-0.9-0.50.8-4.95.7-30.0667.84.38.10.7NA0NA-1-2-1.6
Los Angeles FCWest0.5-0.2-0.81.1-6.3-5.9-0.510.0080.7-1.2-2.6-0.3NA-1.3NA0.10.10.1
New York CityEast0-0.4-0.81.2-1-20.92-0.0090.5-0.3-3.7-0.4NA-6.2NA0.10.40.1
New York Red BullsEast2.51-0.6-0.40.4-1.11.5-10.0337.51.73.50.4NA2.80-0.7-1.2-1.2
Portland TimbersWest31.2-0.6-0.5-1.5-4.32.9-20.0613.72.32.20.7NA4.6NA-0.9-2-1.9
Columbus CrewEast3.91.6-0.7-11.7-3.24.9-20.0523.52.71.60.4NA9.5NA-1.4-2.8-2.8
Orlando CityEast-1.5-0.40.7-0.4-2.1-1.2-0.91-0.003-5.1-0.8-3.90NA-1.1NA0.61.20.9
New England RevolutionEast1.40.6-0.1-0.53.82.21.500.00290.30.4-0.5NA-0.1NA-0.4-0.9-0.9
FC DallasWest1.50.7-0.2-0.620.71.3-20.0199.90.60.20.6NA1.10-0.6-1.1-1.1
Real Salt LakeWest1.70.7-0.2-0.60.50.7-0.210.00110.6-0.20.30.3NA0.3NA-0.7-1.4-1.3
Vancouver WhitecapsWest-0.9-0.6-0.410.73.9-3.2-1-0.008-6.3-0.6-0.3NA3.83.8NA0.50.90.8
Houston DynamoWest-0.7-0.7-0.71.4-1.4-1.2-0.21-0.023-5.3-0.8-0.1-0.6NA-1.5NA0.40.60.6
Seattle SoundersWest0.60.50.4-0.70.70.10.60-0.0052.6-0.100.3NA-0.80-0.2-0.5-0.6
Toronto FCEast-3.5-0.91.5-0.603.6-3.44-0.028-20.2-1.7-0.7NA4.44.4-49.51.12.72.6
Minnesota UnitedWest-4.6-1.22.1-0.9-4.93.1-84-0.072-27-1.8-0.6-0.9NA-2.6NA23.43.6
Philadelphia UnionEast20.9-0.1-0.70.1-55.1-40.0395.70.100.1NA0.3NA-0.7-1.5-1.5
Chicago FireEast0.50.40.2-0.6-2-0.2-1.9-20.0131.30.100NA-0.4NA-0.3-0.4-0.5
Los Angeles GalaxyWest-1.4-0.30.8-0.62.82.70.10-0.019-6.1-0.10-0.7NA-0.9NA0.50.80.8
San Jose EarthquakesWest3.51.3-1-0.42.3-4.16.4-30.0479.50.200.2NA0.4NA-1.2-2.3-2.4
DC UnitedEast-1.3-0.30.7-0.544.5-0.51-0.014-3.9-0.2-0.1-0.3NA-0.3NA0.20.70.7
Colorado RapidsWest-2.4-0.61.2-0.5-0.8-0.5-0.31-0.04-10.3-0.5-0.1-0.4NA-100.91.51.6
Montreal ImpactEast-5.5-1.62.3-0.7-6.91.5-8.34-0.115-18.8-0.8-0.1NA-4.5-4.5NA1.53.53.5

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL

Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem decreasing from 19th to 23rd.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem decreased from a 38.7% to a 29.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem increased from a 0.6% to a 0.3% chance of claiming the USL regular season title.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship decreased from 2.1% to 1.5%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the initial projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

One Comment

  1. -nickt.- says:

    that philly +/- though oof

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