SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through April 22nd

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through April 22nd, 2018.

Interactive Charts

*Hint: If you ever want a sneak peek on forecasts, these charts are often updated earlier than the official post

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia decreasing from 19th to 23rd.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Cory Burke315126070.4452.2241.779
Jay Simpson110382.3682.3680
Raymon Gaddis02929151901.7181.718
Mark McKenzie02222117901.6791.679
Marcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Derrick Jones-112106-0.8490.8491.698
Anthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Alejandro Bedoya-231331843-0.0981.5141.612
Keegan Rosenberry-330331890-0.1431.4291.571
Haris Medunjanin-326291637-0.1651.4291.594
Warren Creavalle-3811500-0.541.441.98
Fabian Herbers-336331-0.8160.8161.631
Borek Dockal-425291706-0.2111.3191.53
Ilsinho-41115812-0.4431.2191.663
Matthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Fafa Picault-625311362-0.3961.6522.048
Fabinho-6410481-1.1230.7481.871
Andre Blake-732392070-0.3041.3911.696
Auston Trusty-732392070-0.3041.3911.696
David Accam-713201027-0.6131.1391.753
Jack Elliott-71017891-0.7071.011.717
CJ Sapong-1019291583-0.5691.081.649
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst25502521201.0612.1231.061
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips24381417271.2511.980.73
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan23482520141.0282.1451.117
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel23492620611.0042.141.135
New York Red BullsSean Davis22391717581.1261.9970.87
New York Red BullsTyler Adams21361516091.1752.0140.839
New York Red BullsLuis Robles21412018001.052.051
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez21452420130.9392.0121.073
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron21482721050.8982.0521.154
New York Red BullsTim Parker20361617101.0531.8950.842
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence18341616290.9941.8780.884
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez18442618770.8632.111.247
New York Red BullsAaron Long18382018980.8541.8020.948
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez17483121410.7152.0181.303
New York CityAlexander Callens17483121450.7132.0141.301
New York CityJesus Medina16422617830.8082.121.312
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói16382218030.7991.8971.098
New York CitySean Johnson16432719800.7271.9551.227
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz16442820290.711.9521.242
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo15261110991.2282.1290.901
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba15271211011.2262.2070.981
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar15321713351.0112.1571.146
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour15402516580.8142.1711.357
New York CityAlexander Ring15402518150.7441.9831.24
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann14291511421.1032.2851.182
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot14271311501.0962.1131.017
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton14251111571.0891.9450.856
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe14342014650.862.0891.229
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra14321815540.8111.8531.042
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler14352117550.7181.7951.077
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose131967311.6012.3390.739
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.1672.3331.167
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer13301714530.8051.8581.053
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm13392617970.6511.9531.302
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.4842.3490.865
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella12251313500.81.6670.867
New York CityEbenezer Ofori12311914620.7391.9081.17
Portland TimbersDiego Chara12311915300.7061.8241.118
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing12382615820.6832.1621.479
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi12423020700.5221.8261.304
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez12423020700.5221.8261.304
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia12423020700.5221.8261.304
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi11251411050.8962.0361.14
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco11241312370.81.7460.946
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney11352414550.682.1651.485
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell11291814700.6731.7761.102
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza11382718710.5291.8281.299
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.1152.1191.004
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha10281811710.7692.1521.383
FC DallasMichael Barrios10291915640.5751.6691.093
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz91674301.8843.3491.465
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin9342518280.4431.6741.231
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis9382918500.4381.8491.411
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl81467370.9771.710.733
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros818109170.7851.7670.981
New York CityMaxime Chanot8211310330.6971.831.133
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley8322414300.5032.0141.51
New York CityBen Sweat8292114390.51.8141.313
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado8302214850.4851.8181.333
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman8342615110.4772.0251.549
Houston DynamoEric Alexander8312315260.4721.8281.356
FC DallasRoland Lamah8312316640.4331.6771.244
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman8403218000.421.6
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller8453719800.3642.0451.682
Portland TimbersAndy Polo71588280.7611.630.87
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen720139020.6981.9961.297
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante7201310770.5851.6711.086
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes7211411530.5461.6391.093
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic7342713330.4732.2961.823
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani7352814970.4212.1041.683
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto7302315860.3971.7021.305
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco7282116460.3831.5311.148
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri7342718520.341.6521.312
FC DallasReto Ziegler7342718710.3371.6351.299
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara7342718730.3361.6341.297
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala7342718900.3331.6191.286
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber7443720080.3141.9721.658
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar6933031.7822.6730.891
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos61264261.2682.5351.268
New York CityRodney Wallace61157020.7691.410.641
New York CityRonald Matarrita618127260.7442.2311.488
Portland TimbersAndres Flores617117620.7092.0081.299
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe617118080.6681.8941.225
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey6241811500.471.8781.409
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos6272112520.4311.9411.51
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius6322612840.4212.2431.822
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro6241815300.3531.4121.059
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel6342815670.3451.9531.608
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah6272117170.3151.4151.101
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas6352917180.3141.8341.519
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti6322617990.31.6011.301
FC DallasMatt Hedges6342819800.2731.5451.273
FC DallasReggie Cannon6352920210.2671.5591.291
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham6464021600.251.9171.667
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik6464021600.251.9171.667
New York CityJonathan Lewis5721812.4863.4810.994
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.3762.2020.826
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.2752.551.275
FC DallasKellyn Acosta516116740.6682.1361.469
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic51386980.6451.6761.032
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande519147660.5872.2321.645
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.5841.7531.169
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos522177890.572.511.939
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert519148180.552.091.54
FC DallasJimmy Maurer516119000.51.61.1
New York Red BullsConnor Lade518139780.461.6561.196
New York CityDavid Villa522179810.4592.0181.56
Toronto FCAuro5231810640.4231.9451.523
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren5241911300.3981.9121.513
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela5292414080.321.8541.534
Columbus CrewArtur5302519350.2331.3951.163
New York Red BullsBen Mines44090440
Columbus CrewPatrick Mullins4621272.8354.2521.417
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV4841622.2224.4442.222
Seattle SoundersRaúl Ruidíaz4733610.9971.7450.748
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio41173760.9572.6331.676
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark41174890.7362.0251.288
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.414105680.6342.2181.585
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.4291.0710.643
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski416128490.4241.6961.272
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera418149420.3821.721.338
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger4242011550.3121.871.558
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor4262211780.3061.9861.681
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini4302613670.2631.9751.712
Columbus CrewPedro Santos4221814740.2441.3431.099
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye4332915820.2281.8771.65
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez4312715820.2281.7641.536
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell4282415990.2251.5761.351
Houston DynamoJoe Willis4302616200.2221.6671.444
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas330367.57.50
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton341893.0344.0451.011
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.7843.7110.928
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.5982.130.533
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.9891.9780.989
New York CityThomas McNamara3633030.8911.7820.891
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor31073320.8132.7111.898
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi3853630.7441.9831.24
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.6842.2781.595
Toronto FCChris Mavinga31075000.541.81.26
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead313105650.4782.0711.593
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke315126070.4452.2241.779
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng316136830.3952.1081.713
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes318158820.3061.8371.531
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso314119060.2981.3911.093
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez3221910350.2611.9131.652
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson3171412770.2111.1980.987
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin3201713790.1961.3051.109
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi3343116440.1641.8611.697
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo3302716990.1591.5891.43
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara3383517900.1511.9111.76
Toronto FCAyo Akinola220247.57.50
Los Angeles GalaxySheanon Williams220394.6154.6150
MinnesotaRomario Ibarra231493.6735.511.837
Columbus CrewEdward Opoku231563.2144.8211.607
DC UnitedBruno Miranda231862.0933.141.047
New York CityValentin Castellanos231882.0453.0681.023
Sporting Kansas CityGianluca Busio2201031.7481.7480
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams2641761.0233.0682.045
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro2311940.9281.3920.464
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.7091.7721.063
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.6822.3861.705
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa2532680.6721.6791.007
DC UnitedKofi Opare2642870.6271.8821.254
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal2643070.5861.7591.173
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera2643640.4951.4840.989
FC DallasTesho Akindele2754000.451.5751.125
DC UnitedWayne Rooney2974010.4492.021.571
FC DallasCristian Colman2864350.4141.6551.241
Toronto FCJozy Altidore2865190.3471.3871.04
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez215136880.2621.9621.701
Real Salt LakeNick Besler215137120.2531.8961.643
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta215138680.2071.5551.348
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp215139210.1951.4661.27
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez2211911700.1541.6151.462
FC DallasVictor Ulloa2191711840.1521.4441.292
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee2171512080.1491.2671.118
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo2333117120.1051.7351.63
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco2353317390.1041.8111.708
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio2363418020.11.7981.698
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba2383620430.0881.6741.586
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful2312920700.0871.3481.261
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.1828.1820
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.57.50
Montreal ImpactMathieu Choiniere110263.4623.4620
Columbus CrewJustin Meram11030330
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.3682.3680
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.5521.5520
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.3241.3240
Seattle SoundersBrad Smith121731.2332.4661.233
Chicago FireJon Bakero121751.22.41.2
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro132851.0593.1762.118
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann12190121
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler1211010.8911.7820.891
MinnesotaAngelo Rodriguez1321560.5771.7311.154
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.5730.5730
New York CityBrad Stuver1541800.52.52
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic1431850.4861.9461.459
Atlanta UnitedEric Remedi1431930.4661.8651.399
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson1872630.3422.7382.395
Colorado RapidsKellyn Acosta1542700.3331.6671.333
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.3331.3331
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna1762810.322.2421.922
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez1543430.2621.3121.05
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin1983530.2552.2952.04
Columbus CrewJon Kempin1984500.21.81.6
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.21.81.6
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia1764510.21.3971.197
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres1985370.1681.5081.341
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco111107060.1271.4021.275
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan112117220.1251.4961.371
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera119189560.0941.7891.695
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell113129560.0941.2241.13
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi1191810420.0861.6411.555
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna1242313340.0671.6191.552
Toronto FCAlexander Bono1323116200.0561.7781.722
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo1353417090.0531.8431.791
Columbus CrewZack Steffen1222117100.0531.1581.105
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain1212016870.0531.121.067
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall1252417380.0521.2951.243
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla1343318310.0491.6711.622
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez1373619340.0471.7221.675
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei1242319800.0451.0911.045
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes1302921380.0421.2631.221
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller03838187901.821.82
New England RevolutionMatt Turner03838207001.6521.652
Toronto FCMichael Bradley03737186701.7841.784
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury03333187201.5871.587
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis02929151901.7181.718
New York CityJo Inge Berget02727130601.8611.861
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan02626207001.131.13
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie02222117901.6791.679
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall02020118901.5141.514
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva02020128701.3991.399
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho0191986001.9881.988
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho01818102601.5791.579
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum0141490701.3891.389
FC DallasJacori Hayes0131391601.2771.277
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye0131361901.891.89
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin0131383301.4051.405
Orlando CityStefano Pinho0121253702.0112.011
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam01212110300.9790.979
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida0121259801.8061.806
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez0101065001.3851.385
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards09980901.0011.001
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis09955401.4621.462
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund09954001.51.5
Columbus CrewMike Grella08845901.5691.569
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez06645901.1761.176
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell06645601.1841.184
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem06666000.8180.818
DC UnitedRussell Canouse05529901.5051.505
New England RevolutionChris Tierney05530901.4561.456
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Smith05518002.52.5
Chicago FirePatrick McLain04422401.6071.607
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson04411103.2433.243
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins04422501.61.6
San Jose EarthquakesGuram Kashia044360011
San Jose EarthquakesLuis Felipe044360011
New York CityKwame Awuah03314301.8881.888
Toronto FCDrew Moor03327500.9820.982
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez0226902.6092.609
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey02220800.8650.865
FC DallasDominique Badji0116201.4521.452
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace0112903.1033.103
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam01190011
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu00016000
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen00054000
Chicago FireMichael de Leeuw00017000
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu00093000
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem00012000
DC UnitedDane Kelly0003000
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey0001000
FC DallasJesús Ferreira0003000
Houston DynamoMac Steeves00026000
Los Angeles FCChristian Ramirez00021000
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter00076000
Montreal ImpactMicheal Azira0006000
Montreal ImpactQuincy Amarikwa00023000
New York CityCedric Hountondji0001000
New York Red BullsAndreas Ivan0005000
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo0001000
Portland TimbersJeremy Ebobisse0008000
Portland TimbersModou Jadama00027000
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland0001000
Real Salt LakeTaylor Peay0001000
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee000246000
Sporting Kansas CityKrisztián Németh00014000
Toronto FCAidan Daniels00012000
Toronto FCJon Bakero0004000
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-136371909-0.0471.6971.744
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-138391786-0.051.9151.965
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela-122231775-0.0511.1151.166
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-115161433-0.0630.9421.005
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna-127281287-0.071.8881.958
DC UnitedPaul Arriola-124251266-0.0711.7061.777
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-118191158-0.0781.3991.477
Toronto FCMarky Delgado-125261126-0.081.9982.078
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea-119201066-0.0841.6041.689
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-115161063-0.0851.271.355
Chicago FireDiego Campos-120211034-0.0871.7411.828
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu-115161012-0.0891.3341.423
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg-11415974-0.0921.2941.386
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo-11920929-0.0971.8411.938
Orlando CityLamine Sane-11920923-0.0981.8531.95
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.1041.4571.561
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta-11819848-0.1061.912.017
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-11718853-0.1061.7941.899
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-11213823-0.1091.3121.422
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic-11819784-0.1152.0662.181
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-11112759-0.1191.3041.423
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-156689-0.1310.6530.784
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa-11011681-0.1321.3221.454
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-1910652-0.1381.2421.38
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.161.2791.439
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-178498-0.1811.2651.446
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-1910487-0.1851.6631.848
Orlando CityEarl Edwards Jr.-1910392-0.232.0662.296
Chicago FireDrew Conner-134379-0.2370.7120.95
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis-134361-0.2490.7480.997
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-189353-0.2552.042.295
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida-178290-0.312.1722.483
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.3331.6672
MinnesotaMason Toye-145259-0.3471.391.737
Montreal ImpactShamit Shome-156249-0.3611.8072.169
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.4090.8181.227
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-134202-0.4461.3371.782
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.4481.7912.239
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.5062.5283.034
FC DallasKris Reaves-112168-0.5360.5361.071
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.570.571.139
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112157-0.5730.5731.146
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.6431.9292.571
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal-101123-0.73200.732
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.7560.7561.513
Colorado RapidsGiles Barnes-101115-0.78300.783
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones-112106-0.8490.8491.698
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-112105-0.8570.8571.714
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.93800.938
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-134
Seattle SoundersBryan Meredith-12390-123
Chicago FireStefan Cleveland-11290-112
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.0113.0344.045
Orlando CityDillon Powers-10169-1.30401.304
FC DallasEma Twumasi-10145-202
Houston DynamoRonaldo Peña-10143-2.09302.093
New England RevolutionBrian Wright-10143-2.09302.093
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.-11229-3.1033.1036.207
FC DallasPablo Aranguiz-10128-3.21403.214
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.603.6
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10124-3.7503.75
New England RevolutionCristhian Machado-1013-30030
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell-236382050-0.0881.581.668
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-231332054-0.0881.3581.446
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-231331843-0.0981.5141.612
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-234361635-0.111.8721.982
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-230321518-0.1191.7791.897
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-225271472-0.1221.5291.651
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara-229311460-0.1231.7881.911
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun-231331430-0.1261.9512.077
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia-223251323-0.1361.5651.701
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet-221231246-0.1441.5171.661
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-221231229-0.1461.5381.684
MinnesotaCollen Warner-221231018-0.1771.8572.033
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe-22022900-0.222.2
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-21719793-0.2271.9292.156
Chicago FireAlan Gordon-21214783-0.231.3791.609
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry-21517720-0.251.8752.125
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen-21113711-0.2531.3921.646
Colorado RapidsKortne Ford-279640-0.2810.9841.266
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-2810630-0.2861.1431.429
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257594-0.3030.7581.061
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-2911568-0.3171.4261.743
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey-21012554-0.3251.6251.949
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-21012466-0.3861.9312.318
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-235304-0.5920.8881.48
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-246289-0.6231.2461.869
FC DallasMarquinhos Pedroso-257270-0.6671.6672.333
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-235251-0.7171.0761.793
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-235206-0.8741.3112.184
DC UnitedJalen Robinson-235159-1.1321.6982.83
Houston DynamoEric Bird-202148-1.21601.216
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.2241.2242.449
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.36401.364
Los Angeles FCDanilo Silva-20296-1.87501.875
Los Angeles FCLuis Lopez-20290-202
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.19502.195
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-20274-2.43202.432
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar-20265-2.76902.769
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20242-4.28604.286
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.62505.625
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.18208.182
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-20221-8.57108.571
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-330331890-0.1431.4291.571
Columbus CrewWil Trapp-321241793-0.1511.0541.205
DC UnitedYamil Asad-331341686-0.161.6551.815
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin-326291637-0.1651.4291.594
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo-328311522-0.1771.6561.833
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-319221474-0.1831.161.343
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-328311384-0.1951.8212.016
Houston DynamoLeonardo-320231380-0.1961.3041.5
DC UnitedOniel Fisher-323261327-0.2031.561.763
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-323261263-0.2141.6391.853
DC UnitedChris Durkin-323261142-0.2361.8132.049
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-317201023-0.2641.4961.76
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-317201009-0.2681.5161.784
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler-31720947-0.2851.6161.901
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-31720890-0.3031.7192.022
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-31013878-0.3081.0251.333
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist-31013830-0.3251.0841.41
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña-31821804-0.3362.0152.351
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-31215775-0.3481.3941.742
Real Salt LakeSunny-31013743-0.3631.2111.575
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.5141.21.714
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle-3811500-0.541.441.98
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-31013496-0.5441.8152.359
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-31013482-0.561.8672.427
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-3912435-0.6211.8622.483
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-336331-0.8160.8161.631
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa-358274-0.9851.6422.628
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-314192-1.4060.4691.875
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-314154-1.7530.5842.338
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303110-2.45502.455
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.47702.477
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-30394-2.87202.872
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.7108.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882015.882
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-429332045-0.1761.2761.452
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-432361991-0.1811.4471.627
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-437411872-0.1921.7791.971
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-425291706-0.2111.3191.53
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-432361677-0.2151.7171.932
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski-425291548-0.2331.4531.686
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-428321530-0.2351.6471.882
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-417211480-0.2431.0341.277
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-425291360-0.2651.6541.919
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-425291312-0.2741.7151.989
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-423271179-0.3051.7562.061
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-41418900-0.41.41.8
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317836-0.4311.41.83
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-41115812-0.4431.2191.663
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-41317737-0.4881.5882.076
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-41014734-0.491.2261.717
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-41317731-0.4921.6012.093
MinnesotaEric Miller-41115678-0.5311.461.991
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-4913628-0.5731.291.863
DC UnitedUlises Segura-41014620-0.5811.4522.032
Toronto FCJay Chapman-41014618-0.5831.4562.039
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-4812597-0.6031.2061.809
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.6671.3332
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-437422-0.8530.641.493
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437392-0.9180.6891.607
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-112
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-459355-1.0141.2682.282
Orlando CityShane O'Neill-4711353-1.021.7852.805
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437335-1.0750.8061.881
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.3851.0382.423
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
MinnesotaMaximiniano-404147-2.44902.449
Los Angeles FCAndre Horta-404103-3.49503.495
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-415
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-528331910-0.2361.3191.555
Colorado RapidsJack Price-527321870-0.2411.2991.54
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-528331855-0.2431.3581.601
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-533381800-0.251.651.9
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-524291408-0.321.5341.854
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-516211167-0.3861.2341.62
Chicago FireMo Adams-51217884-0.5091.2221.731
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-5914738-0.611.0981.707
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-51217702-0.6411.5382.179
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-549570-0.7890.6321.421
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-51419542-0.832.3253.155
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.8331.52.333
Houston DynamoJared Watts-538479-0.9390.5641.503
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-5914443-1.0161.8282.844
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510426-1.0561.0562.113
MinnesotaCollin Martin-5510338-1.3311.3312.663
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.4421.1542.596
Chicago FireRaheem Edwards-527310-1.4520.5812.032
Chicago FireNicolas Hasler-516238-1.8910.3782.269
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-505173-2.60102.601
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.3270.8655.192
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-633392133-0.2531.3921.646
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-630361925-0.2811.4031.683
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-630361620-0.3331.6672
Orlando CityChris Mueller-629351536-0.3521.6992.051
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-623291481-0.3651.3981.762
Chicago FireDax McCarty-622281449-0.3731.3661.739
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-625311362-0.3961.6522.048
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-620261343-0.4021.341.742
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar-614201333-0.4050.9451.35
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-615211249-0.4321.0811.513
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-619251122-0.4811.5242.005
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-620261082-0.4991.6642.163
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-61622921-0.5861.5642.15
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-61521908-0.5951.4872.081
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-6713902-0.5990.6981.297
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-61622879-0.6141.6382.253
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-61319805-0.6711.4532.124
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-61117793-0.6811.2481.929
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-61218622-0.8681.7362.605
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-6410481-1.1230.7481.871
Toronto FCClint Irwin-6713450-1.21.42.6
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-6410284-1.9011.2683.169
DC UnitedIan Harkes-6511273-1.9781.6483.626
Orlando CityDonny Toia-617238-2.2690.3782.647
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.42202.422
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-617132-4.0910.6824.773
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-734412160-0.2921.4171.708
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-733402100-0.31.4141.714
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-738452070-0.3041.6521.957
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-732392070-0.3041.3911.696
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-732392070-0.3041.3911.696
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-731381806-0.3491.5451.894
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-727341522-0.4141.5972.011
Orlando CityDom Dwyer-728351434-0.4391.7572.197
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-719261424-0.4421.2011.643
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-718251260-0.51.2861.786
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-722291085-0.5811.8252.406
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-713201027-0.6131.1391.753
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-71017891-0.7071.011.717
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-71118777-0.8111.2742.085
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71118732-0.8611.3522.213
Orlando CityScott Sutter-71421667-0.9451.8892.834
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-7613576-1.0940.9382.031
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-7411563-1.1190.6391.758
Orlando CityVictor Giro-7411328-1.9211.0983.018
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-829371930-0.3731.3521.725
MinnesotaIbson-834421874-0.3841.6332.017
Orlando CityWill Johnson-825331534-0.4691.4671.936
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-816241093-0.6591.3171.976
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-81422910-0.7911.3852.176
Chicago FireElliot Collier-81422904-0.7961.3942.19
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-81523892-0.8071.5132.321
Orlando CityChris Schuler-81422695-1.0361.8132.849
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.2630.9472.211
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-8614456-1.5791.1842.763
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-819275-2.6180.3272.945
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-929382070-0.3911.2611.652
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-931402020-0.4011.3811.782
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-931401951-0.4151.431.845
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-932411917-0.4231.5021.925
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-923321422-0.571.4562.025
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-918271385-0.5851.171.755
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-919281234-0.6561.3862.042
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-920291125-0.721.62.32
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-916251114-0.7271.2932.02
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-91019731-1.1081.2312.339
Orlando CityTony Rocha-91322728-1.1131.6072.72
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-9514610-1.3280.7382.066
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-1031412250-0.41.241.64
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-1033432070-0.4351.4351.87
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-1033432059-0.4371.4421.88
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-1030401779-0.5061.5182.024
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-1032421639-0.5491.7572.306
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1022321620-0.5561.2221.778
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-1023331603-0.5611.2911.853
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-1019291583-0.5691.081.649
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-1023331537-0.5861.3471.932
Chicago FireTony Tchani-101323825-1.0911.4182.509
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-10616488-1.8441.1072.951
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-1129401892-0.5231.3791.903
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-1129401776-0.5571.472.027
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-1116271395-0.711.0321.742
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-11718782-1.2660.8062.072
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-1229412190-0.4931.1921.685
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-1227391699-0.6361.432.066
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-1330431936-0.6041.3951.999
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-1328411884-0.6211.3381.959
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-1328411876-0.6241.3431.967
Orlando CityJosue Colman-13922714-1.6391.1342.773
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1432461932-0.6521.4912.143
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-1529442017-0.6691.2941.963
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-1524391911-0.7061.131.837
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-1527421575-0.8571.5432.4
Orlando CityRJ Allen-151227876-1.5411.2332.774
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1618341273-1.1311.2732.404
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-1830481814-0.8931.4882.381
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-1928471768-0.9671.4252.393
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-211132981-1.9271.0092.936

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has decreased from a 22.2% to a 16.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

 

Philadelphia decreased from a 0.3% to a 0.1% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

The Union decreased from a 0.9% to a 0.4% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win decreased from 3.5% to 2.9%.

 

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia has decreased from a 4.5% to a 3.3% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
New York Red BullsEast68.621.99.1368.437.231.211.88710029.644.10NA34.401.823.2
Atlanta UnitedEast67.920.16.47.570.641.229.521.87610022.828.70NA63.2NA22.33.7
New York CityEast67.220.47.6667.644.223.531.84310014.423.20NA73.9NA2.22.64.2
FC DallasWest62.418.38.27.556.445.910.551.68399.96.62.50NA6.601.94.54.8
Portland TimbersWest60.816.97.19.957.744.413.341.72499.211.31.30NA11.8NA2.45.34.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest57.716.89.87.564.347.316.971.57598.25.40.20NA100NA3.26.35.9
Los Angeles FCWest56.616.310.17.670.35911.361.59597.14.200NA4.2NA3.66.96.5
Columbus CrewEast54.315.6117.343.941.42.591.53699.92.400NA2.8NA4.18.17.2
Seattle SoundersWest51.715.212.76.242.938.84.181.54979.21.500NA1.505.39.39.1
Los Angeles GalaxyWest50.814.512.17.464.356.97.4111.383721.200NA1.2NA5.79.79.8
Vancouver WhitecapsWest46.813.113.37.654.265.7-11.5121.32727.40.10NA24.124.1NA7.11212.7
Real Salt LakeWest46.613.414.16.548.261.1-13151.22625.50.100NA0.1NA7.212.112.8
Philadelphia UnionEast4513.716.53.848.457.2-8.9131.3275.80.1031.7NA31.8NA5.812.811.7
DC UnitedEast41.410.814.38.958.260.6-2.4141.22938.50.200NA0.2NA7.215.414.6
Montreal ImpactEast40.712.317.93.842.657.1-14.5161.15434.600NA00NA7.315.514.8
New England RevolutionEast40.410.213.99.956.160.8-4.7171.10626.1000NA0NA7.616.115.5
Toronto FCEast39.310.816.46.861.864.9-3.1101.38423.20.10NA75.875.807.816.515.9
Minnesota UnitedWest38.111.719.3351.167.8-16.7181.0610.6000NA0NA9.417.117.2
Houston DynamoWest37.710.116.57.456.655.41.1191.0590.80068.3NA68.3NA9.517.517.6
Orlando CityEast33.110.121.12.751.578.4-27201.0311.6000NA0NA9.919.919.9
Chicago FireEast328.619.26.348.366.8-18.5211.0080.4000NA0NA10.320.720.7
Colorado RapidsWest31.38.319.26.640.858.3-17.5220.9550000NA00112121
San Jose EarthquakesWest26.7619.28.849.963.6-13.7230.8850000NA0NA11.822.522.5

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
New York Red BullsEast1.70.7-0.5-0.2-1.2-1.70.5-10.06404.410.80NA4.40-0.1-0.6-0.2
Atlanta UnitedEast0.50.2-0.1-0.10.2-0.10.510.03701.8-2.70NA-2.1NA0.1-0.20.1
New York CityEast20.7-0.6-0.11.601.7-10.06103.17.20NA11.8NA-0.1-0.7-0.4
FC DallasWest-1.4-0.40.6-0.300.6-0.50-0.0340-2.2-5.20NA-2.5000.40.1
Portland TimbersWest-3.6-1.21.3-0.2-2.31.6-3.91-0.089-0.7-8-9.50NA-12NA0.61.40.9
Sporting Kansas CityWest3.41.3-0.9-0.31.2-2.94.1-20.16.530.20NA0NA-1.3-1.7-1.8
Los Angeles FCWest-2.9-11-0.1-2.61-3.60-0.082-2.2-2.7-0.8-34.6NA-35NA0.61.10.9
Columbus CrewEast1.30.4-0.4-0.2-0.7-1.30.610.0590.90.600NA0.7NA0-0.5-0.4
Seattle SoundersWest2.10.8-0.5-0.20.6-0.10.710.06714.40.500NA0.50-0.7-0.9-1.1
Los Angeles GalaxyWest-2.3-1.1-0.11.2-1.21.3-2.51-0.047-16.5-0.300NA-0.3NA0.91.31.4
Vancouver WhitecapsWest41.4-1.3-0.11.9-2.24.1-30.10719.30.10NA-7.8-7.8NA-1-2.4-2.1
Real Salt LakeWest-1.2-0.8-0.41.2-1.3-0.5-0.93-0.042-19.1000NA0NA0.711.1
Philadelphia UnionEast2.50.9-0.7-0.22.4-0.22.600.06524.70014.7NA14.8NA-0.9-1.4-1.7
DC UnitedEast1.50.5-0.3-0.20.60.60.1-20.04111.90.100NA0.1NA-0.7-0.9-1.2
Montreal ImpactEast0.2-0.3-0.81.1-0.2-1.41.2-10.0021.800NA00NA-0.10-0.2
New England RevolutionEast-3.1-0.91.2-0.3-0.52.7-3.23-0.119-28.1-0.200NA-0.2NA1.12.12.5
Toronto FCEast-1.4-0.50.500.41.5-1.1-1-0.003-9.2-0.10NA7.77.700.30.91
Minnesota UnitedWest0.4-0.3-0.91.20.8-0.91.7-2-0.002-0.7000NA0NA0.1-0.2-0.2
Houston DynamoWest-0.9-0.30.30-0.6-0.2-0.51-0.054-1.10032.5NA32.5NA0.30.50.5
Orlando CityEast-0.8-0.20.4-0.30.60.30.2-1-0.009-0.7000NA0NA00.20.3
Chicago FireEast-1.8-0.50.8-0.2-2.3-1.1-1.22-0.075-1.300-12.7NA-12.7NA0.30.80.8
Colorado RapidsWest1.30.6-0.2-0.20.5-0.30.7-10.0210000NA00-0.2-0.6-0.6
San Jose EarthquakesWest-1.8-0.40.9-0.5-0.21.2-1.51-0.0560000NA0NA0.30.40.4

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL
Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem increasing from 26th to 25th since the last published forecast.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from a 33.8% to 34.8% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem remained at a 0.5% chance of claiming the USL regular season title from the last published forecast.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship decreased from 1.8% to 1.7% since the last published forecast.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the initial projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

One Comment

  1. Andy Muenz says:

    Will the Union be down to 0.0% chance to make the playoffs by the World Cup break?

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