SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through April 22nd

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through April 22nd, 2018.

Interactive Charts

*Hint: If you ever want a sneak peek on forecasts, these charts are often updated earlier than the official post

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia decreasing from 19th to 23rd.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
Marcus Epps3521971.371
Mark McKenzie3633080.877
Jay Simpson110382.368
Fabinho1212110.427
Raymon Gaddis1985290.17
Fafa Picault0884730
Anthony Fontana011910
Derrick Jones00050
Warren Creavalle000290
Fabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Cory Burke-123157-0.573
Alejandro Bedoya-31215990-0.273
Andre Blake-31215990-0.273
Auston Trusty-31215990-0.273
Haris Medunjanin-31215990-0.273
Keegan Rosenberry-31215990-0.273
Borek Dockal-31013829-0.326
Ilsinho-358352-0.767
Matthew Real-415236-1.525
CJ Sapong-5813869-0.518
David Accam-5611709-0.635
Jack Elliott-6612682-0.792
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
New York Red BullsSean Davis172366602.318
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips142176302
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói142289041.394
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton142179271.359
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst13261310411.124
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.484
New York Red BullsAaron Long122197531.434
New York Red BullsLuis Robles1223118101.333
New York CityYangel Herrera1225139891.092
New York Red BullsTim Parker111987201.375
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan1124139341.06
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel1125149851.005
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi11241310800.917
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez11241310800.917
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler11241310800.917
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia11241310800.917
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz101222593.475
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer101776171.459
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot101996261.438
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann101886301.429
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe10261610480.859
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza10231310650.845
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo91675401.5
New York Red BullsTyler Adams91786451.256
New York CityAlexander Callens9251610650.761
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez9251610670.759
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron9251610780.751
New York CitySean Johnson9251610800.75
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi81244551.582
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence81795781.246
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra820127430.969
New York CityJesus Medina822148910.808
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour822149380.768
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah8181010730.671
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful8181010800.667
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe71033231.95
Orlando CityDom Dwyer717106041.043
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley719126650.947
Orlando CityChris Mueller717107380.854
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing719127610.828
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar71367640.825
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado721147850.803
Houston DynamoEric Alexander721147920.795
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger723168440.746
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis722158490.742
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi722159550.66
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez7221510160.62
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell7201310220.616
Columbus CrewArtur7171010360.608
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain7171011010.572
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes7171011480.549
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor660906
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark6712392.259
Orlando CityStefano Pinho6823021.788
New York Red BullsConnor Lade6933221.677
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella6713601.5
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha61154451.213
Portland TimbersDiego Chara61597200.75
FC DallasRoland Lamah61487620.709
FC DallasReto Ziegler61487930.681
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez621158870.609
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber623179700.557
Columbus CrewZack Steffen615910800.5
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose550905
Columbus CrewMike Grella5501273.543
Portland TimbersAndres Flores5832421.86
New York CityRonald Matarrita5832691.673
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.275
Houston DynamoJoe Willis51494501
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba51274920.915
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey51165080.886
New York CityEbenezer Ofori51275300.849
FC DallasMauro Diaz51275470.823
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto516116270.718
New York CityDavid Villa516116770.665
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez51057000.643
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes51497610.591
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.584
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas521168100.556
New York CityAlexander Ring518138340.54
FC DallasJimmy Maurer516119000.5
FC DallasMatt Hedges516119000.5
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye519149010.499
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba518139630.467
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela523189900.455
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman523189900.455
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller523189900.455
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara518139900.455
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela514910130.444
New York Red BullsBen Mines440904
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos4511352.667
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl4511382.609
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros4511911.885
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson4842461.463
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt4952971.212
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen4733890.925
New York CityRodney Wallace4844190.859
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert41065300.679
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña417136110.589
FC DallasJacori Hayes41286890.522
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren417137190.501
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo414107220.499
Orlando CityLamine Sane419157650.471
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm417137650.471
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti414107640.471
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan419158100.444
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco416128710.413
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun420168910.404
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz420169490.379
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams341446.136
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic3411032.621
FC DallasKellyn Acosta3411371.971
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.598
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin3631921.406
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps3521971.371
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato3522171.244
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia3632251.2
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez3412551.059
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.989
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie3633080.877
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar31073600.75
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez3853650.74
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia31294200.643
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic31294690.576
Toronto FCMarky Delgado31184750.568
Toronto FCAuro31296000.45
FC DallasMichael Barrios31076190.436
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet31296410.421
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell31076630.407
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo31296680.404
New York CityMaxime Chanot314116730.401
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell31296840.395
Columbus CrewPedro Santos31298090.334
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin316138390.322
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez317148670.311
FC DallasReggie Cannon314118720.31
Orlando CityJoe Bendik321189900.273
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir321189900.273
Orlando CityWill Johnson321189890.273
New England RevolutionMatt Turner318159900.273
Columbus CrewWil Trapp31299900.273
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton2201412.857
Columbus CrewJon Kempin231902
New York Red BullsRyan Meara231902
Orlando CityChris Schuler231902
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe2421181.525
Chicago FireDrew Conner2201271.417
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi2311331.353
MinnesotaMason Toye2421830.984
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.709
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752570.7
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.2752650.679
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg2643150.571
FC DallasCristian Colman2533190.564
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo2863530.51
Chicago FireDiego Campos2973950.456
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez21194270.422
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan2974590.392
Orlando CityCristian Higuita21085040.357
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg2975080.354
Portland TimbersAndy Polo2975080.354
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco21085690.316
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel21196300.286
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez217156750.267
New York CityBen Sweat214126990.258
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara213117140.252
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla217159080.198
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury215139090.198
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell217159700.186
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.182
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.5
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas110156
Chicago FireJon Bakero110194.737
FC DallasTesho Akindele110233.913
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.368
New York CityThomas McNamara110501.8
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.552
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110611.475
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante121871.034
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann121901
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa1321060.849
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea1321660.542
Philadelphia UnionFabinho1212110.427
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins1322150.419
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye1322500.36
New England RevolutionChris Tierney1542560.352
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso1322660.338
Chicago FireAlan Gordon1432950.305
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic1543140.287
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho1983530.255
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin1654050.222
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.2
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan1434570.197
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera1874740.19
Columbus CrewJosh Williams1544780.188
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis1985290.17
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera1985360.168
New York CityJo Inge Berget116156930.13
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio113127000.129
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski113127010.128
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman114137200.125
Toronto FCMichael Bradley113127200.125
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna113127540.119
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo115148470.106
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri116158850.102
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala116159000.1
Orlando CityAmro Tarek014147930
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor012125550
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi011117130
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi011116920
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco0995020
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault0884730
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma0883600
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason0774680
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler0774200
MinnesotaTyrone Mears0663530
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski0663070
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell0664560
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe0662700
DC UnitedOniel Fisher0553650
Orlando CityJonathan Spector0553150
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna0441590
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston0442400
FC DallasVictor Ulloa0443000
Orlando CityRJ Allen0441740
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary0442550
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes0441300
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa0331940
MinnesotaCollen Warner0331410
Orlando CityOriol Rosell0331710
Toronto FCChris Mavinga0332100
Toronto FCDrew Moor0332560
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey0222080
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo0221990
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez0221060
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro0221730
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis0221740
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio022920
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson011550
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale011700
DC UnitedBruno Miranda011400
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead011680
Houston DynamoLuis Gil011240
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez011210
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen011570
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana011910
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu000160
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez000170
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen000540
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu000930
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem000120
DC UnitedDane Kelly00030
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey00010
DC UnitedKofi Opare000170
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal000220
Houston DynamoMac Steeves000260
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar00010
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace00010
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter000650
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro00010
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce000900
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel00060
New England RevolutionBrian Wright00030
New York CityCedric Hountondji00010
New York CityKwame Awuah00030
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo00010
Orlando CityDillon Powers00020
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones00050
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle000290
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland00010
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee0002460
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar000130
Toronto FCAidan Daniels000120
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.104
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-11415810-0.111
Houston DynamoLeonardo-11314652-0.138
Toronto FCAlexander Bono-11011630-0.143
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin-167613-0.147
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-189577-0.156
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna-1910560-0.161
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189557-0.162
DC UnitedChris Durkin-11011542-0.166
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-11011512-0.176
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic-11011487-0.185
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng-1910462-0.195
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro-156450-0.2
Real Salt LakeNick Besler-178373-0.241
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards-156368-0.245
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta-1910365-0.247
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund-156360-0.25
Orlando CityScott Sutter-167311-0.289
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney-156285-0.316
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem-134282-0.319
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.333
MinnesotaEric Miller-134262-0.344
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-123258-0.349
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.448
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.506
MinnesotaCollin Martin-123178-0.506
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.57
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke-123157-0.573
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-123147-0.612
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.643
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112135-0.667
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.756
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-1
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.011
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-11287-1.034
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-10159-1.525
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta-10158-1.552
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-10151-1.765
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-10149-1.837
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-10145-2
Orlando CityVictor Giro-10141-2.195
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-10133-2.727
Real Salt LakeSunny-11231-2.903
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.6
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10123-3.913
Orlando CityTony Rocha-10123-3.913
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-10116-5.625
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-1018-11.25
Colorado RapidsJack Price-21113810-0.222
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-21012740-0.243
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-2810630-0.286
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall-279585-0.308
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-21012521-0.345
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-2911454-0.396
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-246295-0.61
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-257271-0.664
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-224267-0.674
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis-202226-0.796
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-246170-1.059
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.224
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-246140-1.286
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.364
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-213121-1.488
DC UnitedIan Harkes-213115-1.565
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-202113-1.593
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-20290-2
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-20290-2
MinnesotaMaximiniano-20288-2.045
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.195
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-21364-2.812
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20224-7.5
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.182
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-31215990-0.273
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-31215990-0.273
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-31215990-0.273
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin-31215990-0.273
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-31215990-0.273
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-31821970-0.278
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-31417922-0.293
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-31316895-0.302
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-31720880-0.307
Chicago FireDax McCarty-31215841-0.321
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-31013829-0.326
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-31417794-0.34
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-31013766-0.352
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-31013720-0.375
DC UnitedYamil Asad-31114697-0.387
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-31215661-0.408
DC UnitedPaul Arriola-3912595-0.454
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-358592-0.456
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-31114557-0.485
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-3811540-0.5
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.514
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam-336509-0.53
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-3710469-0.576
Chicago FireMo Adams-369448-0.603
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos-369442-0.611
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres-358389-0.694
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-336384-0.703
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-325368-0.734
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-358352-0.767
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-314337-0.801
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-336330-0.818
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-325315-0.857
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos-369311-0.868
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-325255-1.059
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-336241-1.12
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-347217-1.244
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu-336200-1.35
Orlando CityJosue Colman-336189-1.429
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-303180-1.5
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-325153-1.765
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.477
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-303103-2.621
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-30395-2.842
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-31464-4.219
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-31438-7.105
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-41822990-0.364
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-41822990-0.364
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-41822990-0.364
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-41418900-0.4
Orlando CityJustin Meram-41418827-0.435
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-41317810-0.444
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317810-0.444
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-41317810-0.444
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan-4711810-0.444
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson-4711810-0.444
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei-4711810-0.444
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-41115739-0.487
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-41216735-0.49
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-4812631-0.571
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-41014622-0.579
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-41115584-0.616
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-41115555-0.649
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.667
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-4610540-0.667
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini-4812528-0.682
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall-41014445-0.809
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-4812418-0.861
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani-4711398-0.905
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-1
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437359-1.003
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-448352-1.023
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva-437297-1.212
Toronto FCClint Irwin-448270-1.333
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437266-1.353
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.385
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.525
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-404190-1.895
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp-404116-3.103
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-4
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-515201003-0.449
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-51520990-0.455
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-51520990-0.455
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-51419990-0.455
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-51419990-0.455
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-51722974-0.462
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham-51419900-0.5
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik-51419900-0.5
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-5813869-0.518
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara-51419810-0.556
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-51419805-0.559
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-5611709-0.635
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-5813630-0.714
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-5914618-0.728
DC UnitedUlises Segura-5813602-0.748
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.833
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-5712508-0.886
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-538490-0.918
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-549471-0.955
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510413-1.09
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-538337-1.335
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.442
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-516199-2.261
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-516180-2.5
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-505110-4.091
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.327
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-61420982-0.55
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-61420971-0.556
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-61521948-0.57
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-61521936-0.577
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-61117900-0.6
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-61117900-0.6
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-61117900-0.6
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-61420884-0.611
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-61218855-0.632
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-61319822-0.657
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-61016777-0.695
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-6915706-0.765
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-6612682-0.792
Chicago FireElliot Collier-6612606-0.891
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-6713569-0.949
Chicago FireTony Tchani-6814534-1.011
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-6410369-1.463
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius-6511348-1.552
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-628248-2.177
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-6410229-2.358
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.422
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-606215-2.512
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-617186-2.903
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-617118-4.576
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-71017576-1.094
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-7815562-1.121
Toronto FCJay Chapman-7613416-1.514
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-7512405-1.556
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-7714387-1.628
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-7512292-2.158
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho-7512270-2.333
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-718190-3.316
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-81018900-0.8
MinnesotaIbson-81119877-0.821
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-8917659-1.093
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-8513585-1.231
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.263
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-8210435-1.655
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-91221843-0.961
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-9413475-1.705
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-101222990-0.909
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-101424983-0.916
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-101424965-0.933
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-10919656-1.372
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-10919616-1.461
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-111425990-1
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-111425990-1
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-111425990-1
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-111425990-1
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-111324909-1.089
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1212241005-1.075
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-121426990-1.091
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-121426990-1.091
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-131326978-1.196

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has decreased from a 22.2% to a 16.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

 

Philadelphia decreased from a 0.3% to a 0.1% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

The Union decreased from a 0.9% to a 0.4% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win decreased from 3.5% to 2.9%.

 

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia has decreased from a 4.5% to a 3.3% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast59.117.59.96.671.551.719.821.56197.31523.56.9NA58.8NA2.63.94.9
New York Red BullsEast58.517.410.36.371.345.226.111.57896.415.422.47.2NA29.302.74.25.1
New York CityEast57.916.38.7958.145.612.541.49795.69.215.65.8NA61NA34.75.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest56.415.58.79.857.340.916.471.4629712105.6NA100NA2.55.45.4
Los Angeles FCWest55.415.810.18.172601261.4829510.88.85.3NA15.6NA2.865.8
Portland TimbersWest54.915.610.28.255.946.69.331.52493.611.37.86.2NA23.4NA36.46
Columbus CrewEast54.6159.39.84937.411.751.48390.58.16.56.6NA37.6NA3.96.56.9
Orlando CityEast50.414.713.16.261.364.1-2.781.41371.52.22.34.2NA6.3NA5.39.29.7
FC DallasWest48.811.88.713.650.948.82.1131.34970.23.50.73.9NA7.505.310.810.1
New England RevolutionEast4813.613.37.156.558.2-1.7101.37255.91.80.93.8NA6.1NA6.211.111.4
Houston DynamoWest47.412.311.210.562.254.37.9121.34962.83.20.64NA7.2NA5.711.710.9
Real Salt LakeWest43.912.715.55.852.970.2-17.2151.30342.210.22.8NA3.8NA7.114.213.7
Philadelphia UnionEast43.91214.17.945.651.1-5.4141.341290.80.23.4NA4.2NA7.614.314.4
Vancouver WhitecapsWest43.611.212.81048.360.3-12171.29636.90.90NA23.423.4NA7.414.714.2
Toronto FCEast43.212.215.16.757.258.9-1.791.40927.61.10.2NA424207.714.614.6
Seattle SoundersWest42.811.4148.642.541.80.8111.35835.41.80.13.5NA6.207.61514.4
DC UnitedEast41.811.4157.758.262.4-4.2161.3210.50.13.1NA3.6NA8.215.715.8
Minnesota UnitedWest41.211.716.16.248.661.4-12.8191.25325.70.40.12.7NA3.2NA8.216.215.8
Los Angeles GalaxyWest39.611.116.56.454.364.7-10.4211.19719.50.401.9NA2.3NA8.817.116.9
Chicago FireEast39.610.615.67.75261.9-9.9181.28211.40.303NA3.6NA8.917.317.4
San Jose EarthquakesWest37.69.515.5956.366.8-10.5201.21510.90.202.1NA2.4NA9.718.618.5
Colorado RapidsWest37.29.816.3844.959.1-14.2221.18510.70.102.1NA2.209.818.818.7
Montreal ImpactEast35.410.519.5454.970.9-16231.1213.900NA20.520.5NA9.919.619.6

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast-2.3-0.61.1-0.50.43.8-3.41-0.023-2-4.2-13.4-0.8NA-16.9NA0.60.90.8
New York Red BullsEast3.31.2-0.8-0.42.8-1.24-10.0645.44.112.51NA7.60-0.8-1.8-1.2
New York CityEast1.60.7-0.1-0.63-1.44.5-20.0251.91.25.6-0.2NA3.6NA-0.3-0.8-0.5
Sporting Kansas CityWest-0.9-0.8-0.71.5-1.9-0.7-1.22-0.0220.3-1.6-4.2-0.3NA0NA0.10.50.3
Los Angeles FCWest-1.9-0.50.8-0.4-0.6-0.70.23-0.025-1.2-1.2-4.8-0.9NA-1.9NA0.310.5
Portland TimbersWest1.90.8-0.5-0.31-0.81.7-10.0186.42.33.10.1NA3.2NA-0.8-1.1-1.1
Columbus CrewEast2.51.1-0.4-0.50.6-1.52.1-20.0367.923.91NA8.6NA-0.7-1.7-1.2
Orlando CityEast-1.3-0.30.8-0.4-0.6-1.30.80-0.009-7.7-1-1-0.5NA-1.6NA0.60.90.9
FC DallasWest-0.7-0.6-0.61.4-10.4-1.41-0.007-1.5-0.6-0.4-0.5NA-1.300.20.60.4
New England RevolutionEast-2-0.51-0.5-2.40.2-2.50-0.02-15.2-1-1.2-0.4NA-2.6NA0.91.51.6
Houston DynamoWest2.81.1-0.6-0.51.5-0.72.2-20.03321.41.20.30.5NA1.6NA-1.4-2.1-2.4
Real Salt LakeWest-2.1-0.60.8-0.2-1.74.7-6.32-0.039-10.9-0.6-0.3-0.8NA-1.7NA0.71.71.5
Philadelphia UnionEast2.61-0.6-0.53.2-1.24.5-30.06210.60.40.20.6NA0.9NA-0.7-2-1.9
Vancouver WhitecapsWest-1.2-1.1-0.922.11.50.62-0.016-7.1-0.4-0.2NA2.12.1NA0.411
Toronto FCEast0.90.3-0.30-2.60-2.70-0.0121.4-0.30.1NA-9.7-9.70-0.1-0.6-0.5
Seattle SoundersWest-0.100.1-0.20.5-0.410-0.0042.20.2-0.1-0.5NA-0.60-0.20-0.1
DC UnitedEast2.71.1-0.6-0.34.60.34.3-20.037.40.20.10.3NA0.4NA-0.6-1.9-1.8
Minnesota UnitedWest-0.4-0.6-0.81.4-0.2-1.71.50-0.005-1.7-0.2-0.10.4NA0.3NA00.50.3
Los Angeles GalaxyWest00-0.10.1-0.5-0.50-1-0.0071.3-0.1-0.1-0.3NA-0.3NA-0.2-0.1-0.1
Chicago FireEast-1.4-0.40.7-0.42.33-0.72-0.002-7.2-0.100.3NA0NA0.60.91.1
San Jose EarthquakesWest-1.9-0.80.40.50.60.40.20-0.018-6.1-0.10-0.4NA-0.4NA0.61.21.3
Colorado RapidsWest-1.5-0.30.8-0.5-1.27.2-8.51-0.033-3.1-0.20-0.2NA-0.300.40.90.9
Montreal ImpactEast-0.9-0.30.300.41.4-1.10-0.031-2.400NA-0.5-0.5NA0.40.50.5

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL
Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem increasing from 26th to 25th since the last published forecast.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from a 33.8% to 34.8% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem remained at a 0.5% chance of claiming the USL regular season title from the last published forecast.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship decreased from 1.8% to 1.7% since the last published forecast.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the initial projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

One Comment

  1. Andy Muenz says:

    Will the Union be down to 0.0% chance to make the playoffs by the World Cup break?

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