SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through March 18th

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through March 18, 2018.

Interactive Charts

*Hint: If you ever want a sneak peek on forecasts, these charts are often updated earlier than the official post

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing expected points-per-game if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia down to 10th from 9th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Fabinho2201351.3331.3330
Jay Simpson110382.3682.3680
Anthony Fontana0118701.0341.034
Cory Burke0117001.2861.286
Ilsinho0118301.0841.084
Derrick Jones0005000
Mark McKenzie00038000
Raymon Gaddis00064000
Fabian Herbers-112193-0.4660.4660.933
Fafa Picault-213150-1.20.61.8
Alejandro Bedoya-336450-0.60.61.2
Andre Blake-336450-0.60.61.2
Auston Trusty-336450-0.60.61.2
CJ Sapong-336450-0.60.61.2
Haris Medunjanin-336450-0.60.61.2
Keegan Rosenberry-336450-0.60.61.2
Jack Elliott-336412-0.6550.6551.311
David Accam-426404-0.8910.4461.337
Borek Dockal-415335-1.0750.2691.343
Matthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst101555011.7962.6950.898
New York CityJesus Medina101665821.5462.4740.928
New York CityAlexander Callens101666151.4632.3410.878
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez101666271.4352.2970.861
New York CitySean Johnson101666301.4292.2860.857
New York CityYangel Herrera101666301.4292.2860.857
New York Red BullsSean Davis91012673.0343.3710.337
New York CityMaxime Chanot91455381.5062.3420.836
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm81244501.62.40.8
New York Red BullsLuis Robles71364501.42.61.2
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton71254971.2682.1730.905
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe71585111.2332.6421.409
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel71585361.1752.5191.343
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan71585401.1672.51.333
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz6821733.1214.1621.04
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips6822182.4773.3030.826
New York CityRodney Wallace6712981.8122.1140.302
New York Red BullsConnor Lade6933151.7142.5710.857
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic61153601.52.751.25
New York CityAlexander Ring6933841.4062.1090.703
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói61264621.1692.3381.169
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba61045131.0531.7540.702
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron61485381.0042.3421.338
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose55090550
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson55090550
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer5612072.1742.6090.435
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg56122522.40.4
New York CityDavid Villa5722571.7512.4510.7
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo5612721.6541.9850.331
New York CityEbenezer Ofori5832891.5572.4910.934
New York Red BullsAaron Long5833031.4852.3760.891
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.2752.551.275
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg5944181.0771.9380.861
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji5944431.0161.8280.813
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann512745012.41.4
New York CityBen Sweat5105450121
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz51384940.9112.3681.457
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez51275280.8522.0451.193
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic440438.3728.3720
New York Red BullsBen Mines44090440
New York CityRonald Matarrita4401063.3963.3960
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic4401272.8352.8350
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos4511352.6673.3330.667
Orlando CityStefano Pinho4511382.6093.2610.652
New York Red BullsTyler Adams4622061.7482.6210.874
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason4512201.6362.0450.409
Orlando CityDom Dwyer4842441.4752.9511.475
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot4952651.3583.0571.698
New York Red BullsTim Parker4622701.33320.667
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov4623201.1251.6880.562
FC DallasRoland Lamah4623461.041.5610.52
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez4843491.0322.0631.032
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda4953541.0172.2881.271
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi4843710.971.9410.97
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar4954040.8912.0051.114
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi41174160.8652.381.514
FC DallasJacori Hayes4734280.8411.4720.631
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye41174310.8352.2971.462
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour41174360.8262.2711.445
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne4954500.81.81
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo4954500.81.81
Colorado RapidsJack Price4954500.81.81
Colorado RapidsTim Howard4954500.81.81
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith4954500.81.81
FC DallasJimmy Maurer4734500.81.40.6
FC DallasMatt Hedges4734500.81.40.6
FC DallasReto Ziegler4734500.81.40.6
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell41065400.6671.6671
New England RevolutionMatt Turner41065400.6671.6671
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo41065400.6671.6671
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl330932.9032.9030
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey330942.8722.8720
FC DallasCristian Colman3301601.6881.6880
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.5982.130.533
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe3521911.4142.3560.942
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia3632251.22.41.2
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam363270121
New York CityJo Inge Berget3852790.9682.5811.613
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez31073470.7782.5941.816
Orlando CityChris Mueller3853480.7762.0691.293
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba3853550.7612.0281.268
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo3633610.7481.4960.748
FC DallasMichael Barrios3634230.6381.2770.638
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti3634280.6311.2620.631
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna3854460.6051.6141.009
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla3964580.591.7691.179
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi3854640.5821.5520.97
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez3855120.5271.4060.879
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez3965140.5251.5761.051
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi314116300.42921.571
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara314116300.42921.571
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez314116300.42921.571
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler314116300.42921.571
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza314116290.4292.0031.574
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia314116300.42921.571
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams231121522.57.5
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton2201412.85712.8570
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa22036550
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark231722.53.751.25
Columbus CrewJon Kempin23190231
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo23190231
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna231911.9782.9670.989
Toronto FCMarky Delgado2201091.6511.6510
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia2421171.5383.0771.538
Chicago FireDrew Conner2201271.4171.4170
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins2201291.3951.3950
Philadelphia UnionFabinho2201351.3331.3330
Chicago FireDiego Campos2311361.3241.9850.662
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin2531471.2243.0611.837
Toronto FCAuro2311511.1921.7880.596
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.2531711.0532.6321.579
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752570.72.4511.751
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt2752700.6672.3331.667
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna2422980.6041.2080.604
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley2753050.592.0661.475
FC DallasMauro Diaz2533120.5771.4420.865
Orlando CityLamine Sane2973150.5712.5712
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert2643150.5711.7141.143
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan2973600.52.251.75
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger2973940.4572.0561.599
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara2754170.4321.5111.079
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis2974220.4271.9191.493
FC DallasReggie Cannon2534220.4271.0660.64
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber21194420.4072.241.833
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell2754480.4021.4061.004
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury2754680.3851.3460.962
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela2865630.321.2790.959
Columbus CrewArtur2975970.3021.3571.055
Columbus CrewPedro Santos2866080.2961.1840.888
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell213116200.291.8871.597
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain2976200.291.3061.016
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah2976230.2891.31.011
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes2976300.2861.2861
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful2976300.2861.2861
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.1828.1820
FC DallasTesho Akindele110127.57.50
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.57.50
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas11015660
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal110165.6255.6250
New York CityThomas McNamara11018550
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi110214.2864.2860
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka110233.9133.9130
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.3682.3680
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh121461.9573.9131.957
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead110511.7651.7650
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.5521.5520
New England RevolutionChris Tierney121761.1842.3681.184
DC UnitedSteve Clark11090110
FC DallasVictor Ulloa11090110
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill1321060.8492.5471.698
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney1101090.8260.8260
Orlando CityCristian Higuita1211280.7031.4060.703
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey1211290.6981.3950.698
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha1211300.6921.3850.692
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence1431350.6672.6672
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera1211350.6671.3330.667
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye1211380.6521.3040.652
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros1211470.6121.2240.612
Chicago FireAlan Gordon1211630.5521.1040.552
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo1541920.4692.3441.875
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini1321940.4641.3920.928
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic1542240.4022.0091.607
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski1652500.362.161.8
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar1762690.3352.3422.007
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra1763260.2761.9331.656
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing1873470.2592.0751.816
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres1654050.2221.3331.111
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez11094130.2182.1791.961
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas1984150.2171.9521.735
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes1984240.2121.911.698
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña111104310.2092.2972.088
Houston DynamoEric Alexander1984380.2051.8491.644
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela111104500.22.22
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman111104500.22.22
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller111104500.22.22
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado1984500.21.81.6
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.21.81.6
Orlando CityJoe Bendik111105400.1671.8331.667
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir111105400.1671.8331.667
Orlando CityWill Johnson111105400.1671.8331.667
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun111105400.1671.8331.667
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson09943001.8841.884
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren08843501.6551.655
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho08835202.0452.045
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole08844501.6181.618
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham08854001.3331.333
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik08854001.3331.333
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara08845001.61.6
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen08854001.3331.333
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher08854001.3331.333
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson088360022
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma088360022
Portland TimbersDiego Chara088360022
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski08838301.881.88
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana08841401.7391.739
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra07737401.6841.684
Orlando CityAmro Tarek07743301.4551.455
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston07746301.3611.361
Columbus CrewWil Trapp066540011
Columbus CrewZack Steffen066540011
MinnesotaTyrone Mears06635301.531.53
Portland TimbersAndy Polo06623702.2782.278
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider05537301.2061.206
Orlando CityJonathan Spector05531501.4291.429
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong05543601.0321.032
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston04424001.51.5
Orlando CityRJ Allen04417102.1052.105
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea04424201.4881.488
MinnesotaCollen Warner03314101.9151.915
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan03318901.4291.429
Toronto FCClint Irwin03318001.51.5
Toronto FCDrew Moor03325601.0551.055
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto02218500.9730.973
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe0228902.0222.022
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter02290022
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan02213001.3851.385
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary02213501.3331.333
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler02220200.8910.891
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng01111200.8040.804
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale01110099
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez0117501.21.2
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa01190011
MinnesotaMason Toye0115401.6671.667
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana0118701.0341.034
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke0117001.2861.286
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho0118301.0841.084
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso0112204.0914.091
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu00016000
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez00017000
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo00026000
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico00013000
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson00017000
Chicago FireJon Bakero0005000
Chicago FireJorge Corrales0001000
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira0001000
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli00011000
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn00035000
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu00069000
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen00055000
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem00012000
DC UnitedDane Kelly0003000
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey0001000
DC UnitedKofi Opare00017000
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal00022000
Houston DynamoMac Steeves00013000
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez00012000
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar0001000
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber0009000
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter00065000
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro0001000
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce00090000
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro0004000
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel0006000
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea00024000
New York CityCedric Hountondji0001000
New York CityKwame Awuah0003000
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo0001000
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones0005000
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie00038000
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis00064000
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante0003000
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland0001000
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee00016000
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle00048000
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-1910450-0.21.82
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-1910450-0.21.82
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-1910450-0.21.82
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-189450-0.21.61.8
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-189450-0.21.61.8
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-189450-0.21.61.8
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng-178424-0.2121.4861.698
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-167360-0.251.51.75
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-167360-0.251.51.75
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund-156360-0.251.251.5
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos-145360-0.2511.25
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-178344-0.2621.8312.093
Orlando CityScott Sutter-167311-0.2891.7362.026
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera-134301-0.2990.8971.196
DC UnitedChris Durkin-134272-0.3310.9931.324
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-145270-0.3331.3331.667
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel-134270-0.33311.333
Toronto FCMichael Bradley-134270-0.33311.333
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco-134270-0.33311.333
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-123258-0.3490.6981.047
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio-134251-0.3591.0761.434
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-134225-0.41.21.6
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.4481.7912.239
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-112193-0.4660.4660.933
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall-123180-0.511.5
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.5062.5283.034
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.6431.9292.571
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-112140-0.6430.6431.286
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani-123135-0.6671.3332
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-112132-0.6820.6821.364
Orlando CityJosue Colman-123127-0.7091.4172.126
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes-134120-0.752.253
Portland TimbersAndres Flores-123119-0.7561.5132.269
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.7560.7561.513
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos-123117-0.7691.5382.308
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-101116-0.77600.776
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-112114-0.7890.7891.579
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards-112112-0.8040.8041.607
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-134
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-12390-123
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-10190-101
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-10190-101
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.0113.0344.045
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato-11289-1.0111.0112.022
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-11284-1.0711.0712.143
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis-10184-1.07101.071
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-10183-1.08401.084
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem-10180-1.12501.125
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio-11264-1.4061.4062.812
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-10160-1.501.5
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-10159-1.52501.525
Toronto FCBen Spencer-10157-1.57901.579
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-11250-1.81.83.6
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-10145-202
Orlando CityVictor Giro-10141-2.19502.195
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-10137-2.43202.432
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-11236-2.52.55
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-10132-2.81202.812
Real Salt LakeSunny-11231-2.9032.9035.806
Orlando CityTony Rocha-10123-3.91303.913
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco-10120-4.504.5
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-10118-505
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-10114-6.42906.429
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta-10113-6.92306.923
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-1018-11.25011.25
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-1018-11.25011.25
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-279554-0.3251.1371.462
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco-2911511-0.3521.5851.937
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-279450-0.41.41.8
Chicago FireDax McCarty-279450-0.41.41.8
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-279450-0.41.41.8
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-279450-0.41.41.8
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-279450-0.41.41.8
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-268449-0.4011.2031.604
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-2810434-0.4151.6592.074
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-2810423-0.4261.7022.128
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-268383-0.471.411.88
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-246357-0.5041.0081.513
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-235355-0.5070.7611.268
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell-268328-0.5491.6462.195
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-235310-0.5810.8711.452
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-246295-0.611.221.831
Chicago FireElliot Collier-235286-0.6290.9441.573
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez-257284-0.6341.5852.218
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro-224270-0.6670.6671.333
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin-224270-0.6670.6671.333
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-235234-0.7691.1541.923
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-246232-0.7761.5522.328
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva-224221-0.8140.8141.629
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-202207-0.8700.87
DC UnitedOniel Fisher-224206-0.8740.8741.748
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-213203-0.8870.4431.33
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-224202-0.8910.8911.782
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu-235180-11.52.5
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor-224180-112
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-246170-1.0592.1183.176
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-213150-1.20.61.8
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.2241.2242.449
MinnesotaCarter Manley-224135-1.3331.3332.667
Toronto FCJay Chapman-213121-1.4880.7442.231
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-202113-1.59301.593
DC UnitedIan Harkes-213108-1.6670.8332.5
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-213102-1.7650.8822.647
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-21399-1.8180.9092.727
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-20292-1.95701.957
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho-21390-213
Toronto FCChris Mavinga-20290-202
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-20290-202
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-20290-202
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-20290-202
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-20290-202
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-21364-2.8121.4064.219
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez-20253-3.39603.396
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-3811630-0.4291.1431.571
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-3811630-0.4291.1431.571
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin-3912479-0.5641.6912.255
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-336450-0.60.61.2
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-336450-0.60.61.2
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-336450-0.60.61.2
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-336450-0.60.61.2
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin-336450-0.60.61.2
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-336450-0.60.61.2
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-3710431-0.6261.4622.088
DC UnitedUlises Segura-347431-0.6260.8351.462
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-358413-0.6541.091.743
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-336412-0.6550.6551.311
Chicago FireTony Tchani-369399-0.6771.3532.03
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-3710376-0.7181.6762.394
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-358371-0.7281.2131.941
Houston DynamoLeonardo-358360-0.751.252
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet-347308-0.8771.1692.045
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-358294-0.9181.5312.449
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius-336252-1.0711.0712.143
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-336207-1.3041.3042.609
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-325199-1.3570.9052.261
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman-325180-1.512.5
Toronto FCAlexander Bono-303180-1.501.5
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-325167-1.6171.0782.695
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-314131-2.0610.6872.748
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam-303130-2.07702.077
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-325102-2.6471.7654.412
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-30391-2.96702.967
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-30390-303
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-31438-7.1052.3689.474
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.7108.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882015.882
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.6671.3332
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-4610540-0.66711.667
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-4610540-0.66711.667
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-4610540-0.66711.667
DC UnitedYamil Asad-4610522-0.691.0341.724
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-4610502-0.7171.0761.793
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-4610474-0.7591.1391.899
Orlando CityJustin Meram-4610462-0.7791.1691.948
DC UnitedPaul Arriola-448415-0.8670.8671.735
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-426404-0.8910.4461.337
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-459394-0.9141.1422.056
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-112
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-415335-1.0750.2691.343
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-426276-1.3040.6521.957
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall-426270-1.3330.6672
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437266-1.3531.0152.368
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-415232-1.5520.3881.94
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-404225-1.601.6
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-404182-1.97801.978
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-415138-2.6090.6523.261
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp-404116-3.10303.103
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-5611555-0.8110.9731.784
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.8331.52.333
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala-5914540-0.8331.52.333
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri-5914538-0.8361.5062.342
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-5510450-112
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-549450-10.81.8
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-5510400-1.1251.1252.25
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-549380-1.1840.9472.132
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan-527360-1.250.51.75
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson-527360-1.250.51.75
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei-527360-1.250.51.75
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.4421.1542.596
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres-527299-1.5050.6022.107
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-516248-1.8150.3632.177
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-516180-2.50.53
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell-516180-2.50.53
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-50598-4.59204.592
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-6612540-112
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-6612540-112
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-6612540-112
MinnesotaIbson-6612529-1.0211.0212.042
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-6612525-1.0291.0292.057
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-6511482-1.120.9342.054
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-6410393-1.3740.9162.29
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-628250-2.160.722.88
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.42202.422
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-617189-2.8570.4763.333
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-617185-2.9190.4863.405
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta-60645-12012
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-7613533-1.1821.0132.195
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-7512528-1.1930.8522.045
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-7613515-1.2231.0492.272
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-707113-5.57505.575
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-8614540-1.33312.333
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-8614540-1.33312.333
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-8614540-1.33312.333
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-8614540-1.33312.333

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has decreased from a 62.7% to a 59.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

 

Philadelphia decreased from a 4.7% to a 3.1% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

The Union has decreased from a 5.0% to a 4.1% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

* I now have assumed to exclude NASL clubs from USOC as their season was cancelled, and I would guess that those clubs that moved to the NPSL are too late to attempt qualification.

** At long last, I have now added in logic to expect regional match-ups. However, it is currently programmed a little differently than the real rules, by choosing the closest opponent rather than the nearest 3 opponents. As I only programmed location data for MLS and USL for this competition, lower division clubs are assigned random distances.

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 4.2% to 4.3%.

 

 

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia has decreased from an 10.2% to a 8.8% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
New York CityEast57.615.88.110.157.345.212.111.49695.611.830.86.7NA80.2NA2.43.95.3
Atlanta UnitedEast5414.79.59.867.449.917.531.47988.113.214.86.4NA53.2NA3.55.96.4
Los Angeles FCWest52.715.211.77.179.769.410.341.45284.911.312.75.6NA16.3NA3.56.76.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest52.113.79.310.954.748.36.371.41183.69.68.65.2NA100NA3.77.47.4
New York Red BullsEast50.113.911.78.564.446.817.551.44673.97.96.55.2NA16.404.78.78.8
New England RevolutionEast49.113.812.67.557.357.4-0.161.42668.23.64.94.7NA12.1NA5.29.610
Toronto FCEast47.813.412.97.861.551.410.121.49361.873.5NA48.948.956.55.610.510.4
Columbus CrewEast47.812.811.89.348.243.94.381.40662.14.72.94.9NA25.9NA5.710.610.6
Vancouver WhitecapsWest47.31312.68.451.653.8-2.3111.36560.34.22.3NA20.720.7NA5.711.110.9
FC DallasWest46.611.29.81349.549.8-0.3141.32354.23.31.73.9NA7.806.21211.7
Los Angeles GalaxyWest46.512.712.88.553.959.7-5.8171.30455.82.81.93.3NA6NA6.111.811.7
Colorado RapidsWest46.211.711.21150.847.63.2131.32752.53.61.93.5NA706.312.211.9
Orlando CityEast45.712.4138.658.863.6-4.7151.31948.21.91.83.1NA5NA6.512.512.6
Real Salt LakeWest44.51213.48.652.263.4-11.2121.33142.81.80.93.2NA5.8NA713.513.3
Portland TimbersWest44.511.312.110.757.6570.6101.379433.614.3NA9.1NA7.113.613.2
Montreal ImpactEast43.812.515.36.155.157.5-2.5161.31539.81.61NA23.723.7NA7.113.813.9
Seattle SoundersWest43.211.313.49.445.444.21.291.437.430.84.5NA12.607.614.514.1
Minnesota UnitedWest42.111.815.46.856.266.3-10.2201.28131.61.10.43.2NA4.3NA815.315.1
Houston DynamoWest42.110.212.211.652.253.1-0.9181.30229.21.70.43.6NA5.4NA8.215.615.4
San Jose EarthquakesWest41.210.313.410.354.871.8-17.1221.27224.70.60.23.3NA3.9NA8.616.416.3
Philadelphia UnionEast41.110.113.110.744.853.3-8.6191.28522.20.90.33.5NA4.5NA8.316.416.4
DC UnitedEast40.610.414.29.446.957.4-10.5231.27210.60.32.8NA3.4NA8.416.716.8
Chicago FireEast39.810.4158.653.362.4-9.1211.2819.10.40.23NA5.1NA8.617.217.1

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
New York CityEast2.50.8-0.90.26.3-17.4-20.0436.63.511.91.2NA12.7NA-0.9-1.5-1.3
Atlanta UnitedEast-1.1-0.8-0.31.10.12.2-2.11-0.016-1.9-1-5.90.5NA-6NA0.30.70.4
Los Angeles FCWest3.41.3-0.7-0.7-6.8-12.96.2-50.04911.74.47.40.9NA5.1NA-1.1-2.6-2.2
Sporting Kansas CityWest-1-0.7-0.41.11.21.4-0.31-0.013-4.3-1.3-2.8-0.1NA0NA0.50.80.8
New York Red BullsEast1.30.5-0.3-0.1-0.9-2.21.300.0018.511.5-0.2NA1.7-14.5-0.6-1-1
New England RevolutionEast-2.2-0.61.1-0.6-4-2.1-1.82-0.021-8.1-1.2-4-0.4NA-4.5NA0.71.71.4
Toronto FCEast-1.7-0.31-0.6-3.1-0.8-2.21-0.013-6.7-1.9-2.9NA-0.4-0.48.80.51.31.1
Columbus CrewEast-1.6-0.40.8-0.5-3-1.1-1.81-0.016-5.1-0.7-1.9-0.4NA-7.2NA0.51.20.9
Vancouver WhitecapsWest-2.8-0.81.2-0.4-3.51.4-51-0.035-16.5-3.2-3.6NA-1.1-1.1NA1.42.42.4
FC DallasWest2.51-0.5-0.5-3.9-5.81.8-40.02513.10.910NA1.30-1-2.2-2
Los Angeles GalaxyWest2.61.1-0.6-0.5-1.3-3.62.3-50.02913.81.11.10.3NA1.3NA-1-2.2-2
Colorado RapidsWest2.10.9-0.4-0.50.1-2.93.1-30.02510.71.30.9-0.1NA1.20-0.9-1.8-1.7
Orlando CityEast3.31.3-0.7-0.62.3-2.44.8-50.04220.80.91.2-0.1NA0.8NA-1.4-2.7-2.7
Real Salt LakeWest-2.5-0.71.1-0.4-3.85.1-8.91-0.057-17.5-2.7-1.5-1.5NA-4.5NA1.32.12.3
Portland TimbersWest2.61-0.7-0.11.9-1.43.3-30.04312.81.60.60.7NA2.9NA-1-2.1-2.1
Montreal ImpactEast-1.5-0.40.8-0.5-10.5-1.64-0.027-5.5-0.7-1.2NA0.90.9NA0.41.21.1
Seattle SoundersWest-0.3-0.4-0.61.21.1-0.81.91-0.008-4.40-0.3-0.3NA-1.200.40.40.5
Minnesota UnitedWest-1.4-0.20.8-0.62.83.3-0.61-0.01-9.3-0.5-0.40.3NA-0.1NA0.81.11.2
Houston DynamoWest-0.2-0.3-0.50.90.20.9-0.73-0.001-3.70-0.10.1NA-0.1NA0.30.30.4
San Jose EarthquakesWest-0.7-0.6-0.61.2-0.6-1.50.81-0.005-6.4-0.4-0.30.4NA0NA0.60.80.9
Philadelphia UnionEast-2.5-0.61.2-0.7-41.4-5.55-0.029-11.3-0.7-0.5-0.2NA-0.9NA0.82.12
DC UnitedEast2.51-0.4-0.6-4.4-4.3-0.100.0239.30.30.2-0.1NA0.2NA-0.8-1.6-1.6
Chicago FireEast-2.1-0.51-0.5-5.2-2.8-2.44-0.021-6.6-0.7-0.2-0.6NA-2.3NA0.61.61.4

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL
Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem remaining at 22nd.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from 48.7% to 54.5% chance of making the playoffs. (Sorry for the cutoff table, I’m working on it, but the interactive charts linked above should be easier to read)

Bethlehem increased from 2.4% to 3.1% chance of claiming the USL regular season title.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship increased from 3.0% to 3.2%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the initial projections for the 2018 NWSL season. These are based solely on matches from 2017 and the additional factor of distance traveled.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

8 Comments

  1. Man this feature is overwhelming, but a favorite of mine and getting better each season. I dig the interactive charts available at the top. But the grammar nerd in me needed to speak up. 🙂

    http://theoatmeal.com/comics/sneak_peek

    Thanks for the great work!

    • Inline with the 538 estimates. Will be interested to see how the two analysis align over the course of the year.

      • Chris Sherman says:

        Interesting. While I like 538, in general, I have a couple problems with their methodology for MLS forecasts, so it’s interesting to hear that we drew similar conclusions anyway.

  2. I stand in awe of the complexities of laying out these images every week.
    .
    would it make any sense for the interactive links for the USL to be at the top of the USL segment, or is that logistically troublesome?

    • Chris Sherman says:

      It’s not a logistical problem, I’d just be afraid that they would become buried in the long post and hard for readers to find.

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