SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through March 18th

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through March 18, 2018.

Interactive Charts

*Hint: If you ever want a sneak peek on forecasts, these charts are often updated earlier than the official post

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing expected points-per-game if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia down to 10th from 9th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
Cory Burke21194530.397
Jay Simpson110382.368
Mark McKenzie018189990
Marcus Epps0994910
Derrick Jones011300
Alejandro Bedoya-124251549-0.058
Raymon Gaddis-122231249-0.072
Warren Creavalle-178390-0.231
Fabinho-134301-0.299
Fabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Anthony Fontana-11299-0.909
Keegan Rosenberry-324271620-0.167
Borek Dockal-319221364-0.198
Haris Medunjanin-419231369-0.263
Fafa Picault-418221070-0.336
Ilsinho-41115812-0.443
Matthew Real-415236-1.525
Andre Blake-525301710-0.263
Auston Trusty-525301710-0.263
David Accam-51217940-0.479
Jack Elliott-5712711-0.633
CJ Sapong-913221302-0.622
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst22432118501.07
New York Red BullsSean Davis21341313781.372
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan20412117441.032
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel20422217911.005
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron18412318350.883
New York Red BullsTyler Adams17281111591.32
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing17341712891.187
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips17301313221.157
New York Red BullsLuis Robles17331613501.133
New York Red BullsTim Parker16281212601.143
New York CityJesus Medina16351914460.996
New York Red BullsAaron Long16321614730.978
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour16372114780.974
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez16382217640.816
New York CityAlexander Callens16402417850.807
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez16402417850.807
New York CitySean Johnson16402418000.8
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez15372216070.84
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot14271311501.096
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton14251111571.089
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe14342014650.86
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói14331915330.822
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose131967311.601
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.167
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence13281512690.922
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis13352215050.777
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman13362315300.765
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber13402716790.697
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller13412817100.684
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz13372417590.665
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.484
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado12271510551.024
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar12271511550.935
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm12322014670.736
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler12301814850.727
New York CityAlexander Ring12332115450.699
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo111876491.525
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba112098461.17
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann1122118721.135
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey1121109251.07
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha1124139910.999
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer11241311000.9
New York CityEbenezer Ofori11261512180.813
FC DallasMichael Barrios11231212270.807
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco11241312370.8
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi11322113970.709
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.115
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto10271712010.749
Houston DynamoEric Alexander10291912900.698
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas10332313760.654
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza10342416910.532
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi10372718000.5
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez10372718000.5
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia10372718000.5
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande91675621.441
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen91786451.256
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe91786881.177
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros91567071.146
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi919108810.919
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella91789900.818
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney9231410050.806
Houston DynamoJoe Willis9271811700.692
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley9302112500.648
New York CityBen Sweat9261712500.648
Portland TimbersDiego Chara9251612600.643
FC DallasRoland Lamah9251613110.618
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman9312213370.606
FC DallasReto Ziegler9281915120.536
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz81463402.118
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren822148610.836
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell8211311100.649
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti8261814390.5
FC DallasMatt Hedges8282016200.444
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar7812003.15
New York CityRonald Matarrita71254561.382
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger723168690.725
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes7191210850.581
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela7261911960.527
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra7241712010.525
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco7231613790.457
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye7312414950.421
FC DallasReggie Cannon7292216820.375
New York CityJonathan Lewis6601174.615
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos61264261.268
Portland TimbersAndres Flores61596600.818
New York CityMaxime Chanot617118530.633
New York Red BullsConnor Lade616108720.619
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor624189840.549
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin6262014690.368
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba6322616830.321
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.376
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.275
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.51274221.066
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead51385380.836
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic517126040.745
New York CityRodney Wallace5946220.723
FC DallasKellyn Acosta516116590.683
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.584
FC DallasJimmy Maurer516119000.5
New York CityDavid Villa520159100.495
Toronto FCAuro5221710050.448
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez5282312760.353
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo5241913390.336
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo5282314420.312
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara5292416030.281
New York Red BullsBen Mines440904
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV4841622.222
FC DallasCristian Colman4843990.902
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark41174890.736
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl41065770.624
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña417136240.577
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng416126620.544
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante41287170.502
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos415118020.449
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez415118100.444
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.429
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera417139140.394
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic423199730.37
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani4242011370.317
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri4262214930.241
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala4262215300.235
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla4292515610.231
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez4312715840.227
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell4282415950.226
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham4343017100.211
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik4343017100.211
New England RevolutionMatt Turner4322817100.211
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas330367.5
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.784
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams3631661.627
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar3411691.598
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez3522720.993
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.989
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor31073320.813
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.684
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo313105690.475
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert313106180.437
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera317147590.356
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez317147760.348
FC DallasVictor Ulloa313108650.312
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia321189340.289
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius322199530.283
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel3252212070.224
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna3242112260.22
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah3201714470.187
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury3292616270.166
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen3322916630.162
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell3312816900.16
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton220247.5
New York CityKwame Awuah220374.865
DC UnitedBruno Miranda231722.5
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio2752020.891
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.709
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson2862570.7
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.682
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin2752830.636
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal2643070.586
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi2753350.537
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia2754500.4
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke21194530.397
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos213114970.362
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic21085180.347
Real Salt LakeNick Besler212105300.34
Portland TimbersAndy Polo2975810.31
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea214127960.226
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell21088020.224
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta215138680.207
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun2232110710.168
Columbus CrewArtur2232116650.108
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera110422.5
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.182
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.5
Toronto FCAyo Akinola110146.429
Los Angeles GalaxySheanon Williams110273.333
DC UnitedWayne Rooney121322.812
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez110372.432
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.368
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg110581.552
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.324
Chicago FireJon Bakero121751.2
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro132851.059
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann121901
Orlando CityEarl Edwards Jr.121901
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler121920.978
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro1211040.865
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.573
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa1431730.52
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic1431850.486
FC DallasTesho Akindele1321900.474
Chicago FireDrew Conner1211990.452
New York CityThomas McNamara1432400.375
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.333
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye1653440.262
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez111104390.205
Columbus CrewJon Kempin1984500.2
Houston DynamoChris Seitz1984500.2
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski1984710.191
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist1985600.161
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes113126160.146
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho118177250.124
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta117167470.12
FC DallasJacori Hayes113128780.103
Chicago FireDiego Campos120198860.102
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi117169750.092
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini1232211180.081
Columbus CrewPedro Santos1151412040.075
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara1262513400.067
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole1313014530.062
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain1212016120.056
New York CityJo Inge Berget0232311180
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo0222211830
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall0202011890
DC UnitedPaul Arriola019199820
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie018189990
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho014147200
Chicago FireAlan Gordon011116820
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg011117650
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu010106870
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan010105680
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards0998090
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps0994910
Orlando CityStefano Pinho0883850
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez0664420
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell0664560
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem0666550
New England RevolutionChris Tierney0553090
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Smith0551800
Chicago FirePatrick McLain0442240
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna0441870
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins0442250
Toronto FCDrew Moor0332560
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey0222080
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam011900
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones011300
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu000160
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen000540
Colorado RapidsGiles Barnes000520
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu000930
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem000120
DC UnitedDane Kelly00030
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey00010
DC UnitedKofi Opare000170
FC DallasJesús Ferreira00030
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal0001150
Houston DynamoMac Steeves000260
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter000750
New York CityCedric Hountondji00010
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo00010
Portland TimbersJeremy Ebobisse00080
Portland TimbersModou Jadama000270
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland00010
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee0002460
Toronto FCAidan Daniels000120
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful-124251800-0.05
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti-126271694-0.053
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya-124251549-0.058
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela-118191538-0.059
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio-127281442-0.062
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco-126271379-0.065
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara-125261271-0.071
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-123241260-0.071
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis-122231249-0.072
Houston DynamoLeonardo-119201111-0.081
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva-118191107-0.081
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro-114151080-0.083
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta-123241068-0.084
DC UnitedChris Durkin-12122960-0.094
Orlando CityLamine Sane-11920923-0.098
DC UnitedOniel Fisher-11718888-0.101
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.104
DC UnitedJoseph Mora-11718817-0.11
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-11112759-0.119
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin-1910653-0.138
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-1910642-0.14
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa-1910591-0.152
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.16
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso-178526-0.171
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-167505-0.178
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-1910487-0.185
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-11011475-0.189
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey-189464-0.194
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-11011434-0.207
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle-178390-0.231
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund-156360-0.25
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-189353-0.255
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-134301-0.299
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida-178290-0.31
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.333
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-134259-0.347
MinnesotaMason Toye-145258-0.349
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-123258-0.349
Toronto FCChris Mavinga-134255-0.353
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.409
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.448
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-112193-0.466
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-134189-0.476
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-134188-0.479
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.506
FC DallasKris Reaves-112168-0.536
Montreal ImpactShamit Shome-134160-0.562
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.57
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112157-0.573
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.643
Houston DynamoJared Watts-101135-0.667
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.756
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-112105-0.857
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana-11299-0.909
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.938
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-1
Seattle SoundersBryan Meredith-12390-1
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.011
FC DallasEma Twumasi-10145-2
Orlando CityDillon Powers-10136-2.5
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.-11229-3.103
New England RevolutionBrian Wright-10126-3.462
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.6
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10124-3.75
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace-1126-15
DC UnitedRussell Canouse-1011-90
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes-223251868-0.096
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-225271710-0.105
Columbus CrewZack Steffen-215171440-0.125
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin-215171266-0.142
Toronto FCAlexander Bono-223251260-0.143
DC UnitedYamil Asad-224261236-0.146
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-216181220-0.148
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet-220221156-0.156
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna-222241095-0.164
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-22022978-0.184
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe-22022900-0.2
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-21719843-0.214
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-21113808-0.223
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-21719793-0.227
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-21214729-0.247
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-246679-0.265
Real Salt LakeSunny-21012644-0.28
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-2810630-0.286
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257594-0.303
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez-2810592-0.304
MinnesotaCollen Warner-21214587-0.307
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry-21113540-0.333
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-2911506-0.356
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis-279492-0.366
Columbus CrewMike Grella-268393-0.458
Colorado RapidsKortne Ford-224299-0.602
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-235271-0.664
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-235251-0.717
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis-202227-0.793
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-246183-0.984
DC UnitedJalen Robinson-235159-1.132
Houston DynamoEric Bird-202148-1.216
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-224147-1.224
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.364
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-202129-1.395
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.195
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-20274-2.432
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar-20265-2.769
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-21364-2.812
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20242-4.286
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.625
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.182
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-20221-8.571
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-324271620-0.167
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-330331602-0.169
Toronto FCMichael Bradley-328311507-0.179
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski-324271403-0.192
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-319221364-0.198
Orlando CityWill Johnson-323261325-0.204
Orlando CityChris Mueller-323261265-0.213
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-313161210-0.223
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-321241103-0.245
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-321241080-0.25
Orlando CityDom Dwyer-320231076-0.251
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-31417969-0.279
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler-31720947-0.285
Chicago FireMo Adams-31215833-0.324
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee-3912810-0.333
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-31518717-0.377
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-3912644-0.419
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen-3710577-0.468
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-3710529-0.51
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.514
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp-3710501-0.539
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-31013496-0.544
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-3912435-0.621
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-369434-0.622
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres-358389-0.694
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-325368-0.734
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa-358274-0.985
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-314154-1.753
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303110-2.455
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.477
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-30394-2.872
Orlando CityVictor Giro-30365-4.154
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-426301498-0.24
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin-419231369-0.263
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-426301348-0.267
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-426301350-0.267
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar-414181288-0.28
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird-420241132-0.318
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-421251084-0.332
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-418221070-0.336
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-41216999-0.36
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-41418900-0.4
Toronto FCMarky Delgado-41721870-0.414
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317836-0.431
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson-4711827-0.435
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-41115812-0.443
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-4913788-0.457
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-41317737-0.488
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-4711637-0.565
Toronto FCJay Chapman-41014618-0.583
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.667
MinnesotaEric Miller-4610463-0.778
DC UnitedJunior Moreno-4711449-0.802
Orlando CityChris Schuler-4913425-0.847
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437392-0.918
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-1
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-437334-1.078
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-459308-1.169
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-4610299-1.204
MinnesotaCollin Martin-437285-1.263
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.385
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.525
MinnesotaMaximiniano-404118-3.051
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-4
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-525301710-0.263
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-525301710-0.263
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-527321631-0.276
Colorado RapidsJack Price-521261530-0.294
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-529341509-0.298
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall-516211378-0.327
Chicago FireDax McCarty-522271359-0.331
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-521261284-0.35
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-521261162-0.387
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo-59141118-0.403
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-51217940-0.479
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-5914928-0.485
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-51318764-0.589
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam-549757-0.594
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-51217728-0.618
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-5712711-0.633
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-51217688-0.654
DC UnitedUlises Segura-5813602-0.748
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.833
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-549539-0.835
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-5914443-1.016
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510426-1.056
Orlando CityScott Sutter-5611403-1.117
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.442
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-505173-2.601
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-516116-3.879
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.327
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-629351557-0.347
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-621271550-0.348
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei-614201530-0.353
Columbus CrewWil Trapp-614201523-0.355
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-621271495-0.361
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-625311422-0.38
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-624301373-0.393
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-620261343-0.402
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-620261228-0.44
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-618241138-0.475
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-616221045-0.517
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-61521915-0.59
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-6713891-0.606
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-61521889-0.607
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-61319795-0.679
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-61319790-0.684
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-61117790-0.684
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-61319757-0.713
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-61218730-0.74
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-6915619-0.872
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-6814549-0.984
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-61319533-1.013
Toronto FCClint Irwin-6713450-1.2
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-6511387-1.395
Orlando CityTony Rocha-639378-1.429
DC UnitedIan Harkes-6511273-1.978
Orlando CityDonny Toia-617238-2.269
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-617230-2.348
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.422
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-617186-2.903
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino-728351774-0.355
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-725321660-0.38
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan-716231620-0.389
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-725321565-0.403
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-718251247-0.505
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-719261211-0.52
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-715221064-0.592
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-716231037-0.608
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-71118891-0.707
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71118732-0.861
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-7411558-1.129
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-7613524-1.202
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-829371800-0.4
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-828361741-0.414
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-829371666-0.432
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-827351614-0.446
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-828361592-0.452
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-828361571-0.458
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-826341490-0.483
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-818261170-0.615
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-815231029-0.7
Chicago FireElliot Collier-81422904-0.796
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-81018900-0.8
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-81523892-0.807
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.263
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-8614456-1.579
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-819275-2.618
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-926351890-0.429
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-927361702-0.476
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-926351620-0.5
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-923321422-0.57
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-913221302-0.622
Chicago FireTony Tchani-91221735-1.102
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-91019731-1.108
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-91019635-1.276
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-9514610-1.328
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-9413583-1.389
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-9918514-1.576
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-1029391710-0.526
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-1022321710-0.526
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-1029391699-0.53
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-1026361673-0.538
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1022321620-0.556
MinnesotaIbson-1022321424-0.632
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-1013231215-0.741
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-1011211025-0.878
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-10818755-1.192
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-1124351830-0.541
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-1128391694-0.584
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-1224361616-0.668
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-1225371611-0.67
Orlando CityRJ Allen-121022696-1.552
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-12517682-1.584
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-1320331557-0.751
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-1319321305-0.897
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1425391617-0.779
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-1425391530-0.824
Orlando CityJosue Colman-15621654-2.064
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-1625411620-0.889
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1618341273-1.131
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-19726801-2.135

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has decreased from a 62.7% to a 59.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

 

Philadelphia decreased from a 4.7% to a 3.1% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

The Union has decreased from a 5.0% to a 4.1% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

* I now have assumed to exclude NASL clubs from USOC as their season was cancelled, and I would guess that those clubs that moved to the NPSL are too late to attempt qualification.

** At long last, I have now added in logic to expect regional match-ups. However, it is currently programmed a little differently than the real rules, by choosing the closest opponent rather than the nearest 3 opponents. As I only programmed location data for MLS and USL for this competition, lower division clubs are assigned random distances.

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 4.2% to 4.3%.

 

 

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia has decreased from an 10.2% to a 8.8% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
New York Red BullsEast66.720.99.23.973.539.53411.8541002625.20NA31.801.93.23.4
Atlanta UnitedEast66.519.777.369.640.728.951.79310016.517.80NA57.6NA23.34
FC DallasWest66.319.77.2758.743.315.541.8061001215.60NA14.1023.64.3
New York CityEast66.120.28.35.567.64621.561.7441007.718.40NA69.7NA2.13.54.7
Los Angeles FCWest65.519.57.5776.952.923.921.8210015.912.829.5NA40.8NA23.74.1
Portland TimbersWest65.118.55.89.857.540.117.431.8210016.810.214.9NA36NA2.24.14.2
Sporting Kansas CityWest54.115.210.28.663.349.214.171.47392.42.20.18.3NA100NA4.67.97.6
Los Angeles GalaxyWest49.614.613.65.862.2575.2131.29270.90.400NA0.4NA5.81010.3
Real Salt LakeWest49.415.415.53.151.763.4-11.6101.34273.70.100NA0.1NA5.71010.3
Columbus CrewEast4913.712.47.941.341.20.181.41289.41.100NA1.2NA4.910.59.1
New England RevolutionEast46.612.211.99.957.9570.991.35972.30.600NA0.6NA5.812.111
Houston DynamoWest45.712.813.87.46151.79.3111.32336.70.2012.2NA12.4NA712.412.6
Montreal ImpactEast42.81419.30.743.859.5-15.7161.22846.300NA23.223.2NA6.814.113.5
Philadelphia UnionEast42.512.716.94.448.356.4-8.1151.26741.50.1014.9NA15NA714.413.9
Vancouver WhitecapsWest42.111.715.27.150.767.9-17.2181.17311.100NA19.219.2NA8.21515.3
Seattle SoundersWest41.711.415.17.539.842.2-2.4121.30813.10.100NA0.108.215.115.4
DC UnitedEast40.710.614.4963.162.70.4171.17727.40.100NA0.1NA7.915.915.5
Chicago FireEast37.310.116.97.154.569-14.4191.1667.9009.3NA9.3NA9.118.118
Orlando CityEast37.211.519.92.647.576.7-29.2201.099.7002.5NA2.5NA917.817.7
Minnesota UnitedWest36.711.520.22.345.669-23.4211.0212.2000NA0NA9.418.118.2
Toronto FCEast35.89.817.86.459.466.9-7.5141.2695.500NA54.954.909.518.718.6
Colorado RapidsWest27.17.121.15.93962.1-23.1220.8220000NA0011.322.122.1
San Jose EarthquakesWest25.95.819.68.751.769.9-18.3230.8140000NA0NA11.522.422.4

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
New York Red BullsEast0.90.50.1-0.62.22.8-0.6-20.00902.56.40NA30-0.1-0.3-0.1
Atlanta UnitedEast-1.9-0.90.20.7-1.51-2.61-0.0360-3.9-14.40NA-17.4NA0.40.70.5
FC DallasWest1.40.5-0.3-0.31.8-0.32.2-10.0430.13.65.60NA40-0.3-0.5-0.5
New York CityEast2.10.8-0.6-0.21.3-2.43.700.07502.39.70NA15.6NA-0.3-0.8-0.6
Los Angeles FCWest-1.1-0.7-0.30.9-2.8-1.6-1.31-0.0360-1.9-6.2-0.3NA-1.6NA0.10.40.3
Portland TimbersWest-0.3-0.5-0.71.3-2.8-2.4-0.41-0.0340-0.9-1-0.3NA-3.6NA00.20.1
Sporting Kansas CityWest-1.4-0.30.6-0.32.72.50.20-0.044-2.7-1.10-0.3NA0NA0.30.20.4
Los Angeles GalaxyWest2.40.8-0.7-0.11-0.21.1-20.02421.8000NA0NA-0.8-1.7-1.6
Real Salt LakeWest-1.3-0.50.40.11.91.70.20-0.015-5.5-0.100NA-0.1NA0.20.30.3
Columbus CrewEast-1.7-0.50.7-0.1-1.50.5-20-0.053-4.6000NA-0.3NA0.20.60.4
New England RevolutionEast-3.6-1.11.4-0.3-0.43-3.30-0.062-17.6-0.600NA-0.6NA0.81.81.8
Houston DynamoWest-1-0.6-0.41-1.5-1.60.10-0.022-7.8-0.201.3NA1.1NA0.30.40.5
Montreal ImpactEast-0.3-0.10.2-0.1-2.30.2-2.50-0.023-2.3-0.10NA-2.1-2.1NA00.10.1
Philadelphia UnionEast3.31.1-1-0.13.512.5-30.08723.30.104.1NA4.2NA-1.1-2-2.3
Vancouver WhitecapsWest-1.5-0.21-0.8-0.61-1.61-0.039-5.900NA-0.6-0.6NA0.40.90.9
Seattle SoundersWest-0.3-0.4-0.61.1-1-1.20.10-0.031-1.3000NA000.10.20.3
DC UnitedEast3.81.5-0.9-0.62.3-2.85.1-20.116180.100NA0.1NA-1.1-2.1-2.3
Chicago FireEast-4.1-1.21.6-0.30.64.6-3.95-0.109-20.100-2NA-2NA1.62.73
Orlando CityEast3.71.2-1.201.6-1.63.2-10.1567.3000.8NA0.8NA-0.9-1.7-1.7
Minnesota UnitedWest2.50.8-0.901.90.81.210.0811.5000NA0NA-0.5-1-0.9
Toronto FCEast-1.3-0.30.6-0.3-0.40.1-0.51-0.029-4.100NA2.72.700.611
Colorado RapidsWest-0.8-0.6-0.31-1.8-2.50.70-0.030000NA000.10.40.4
San Jose EarthquakesWest-0.30.10.4-0.4-2.2-1.1-1.20-0.0140000NA0NA00.20.2

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL
Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem remaining at 22nd.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from 48.7% to 54.5% chance of making the playoffs. (Sorry for the cutoff table, I’m working on it, but the interactive charts linked above should be easier to read)

Bethlehem increased from 2.4% to 3.1% chance of claiming the USL regular season title.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship increased from 3.0% to 3.2%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the initial projections for the 2018 NWSL season. These are based solely on matches from 2017 and the additional factor of distance traveled.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

8 Comments

  1. Man this feature is overwhelming, but a favorite of mine and getting better each season. I dig the interactive charts available at the top. But the grammar nerd in me needed to speak up. 🙂

    http://theoatmeal.com/comics/sneak_peek

    Thanks for the great work!

    • Inline with the 538 estimates. Will be interested to see how the two analysis align over the course of the year.

      • Chris Sherman says:

        Interesting. While I like 538, in general, I have a couple problems with their methodology for MLS forecasts, so it’s interesting to hear that we drew similar conclusions anyway.

  2. I stand in awe of the complexities of laying out these images every week.
    .
    would it make any sense for the interactive links for the USL to be at the top of the USL segment, or is that logistically troublesome?

    • Chris Sherman says:

      It’s not a logistical problem, I’d just be afraid that they would become buried in the long post and hard for readers to find.

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