Match previews

Preview: Union vs New York Red Bulls

Photo: Earl Gardner

Who: Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls
What: Regular season game
Where: PPL Park
When: 3 pm, Saturday, Sept. 13
Watch:  NBCSN, NBC Sports Live Extra, MLS Direct Kick
Whistle: Allen Chapman; Linesmen: James Conlee, Matthew Nelson; Fourth official: Hilario Grajeda

On Wednesday night, DC United done got themselves Geiger’d. And the New York Red Bulls, after losing Bradley Wright-Phillips to a tight hamstring, eeked out a home win at the death.

Thus, Philadelphia Union will face a mediocre team with its top scorer in a fragile place and its best player coming off an 89-minute midweek performance.

Yeah, that’ll work.

The Union, meanwhile, finally have both full health and full attendance. Cristian Maidana, Vincent Nogueira and Amobi Okugo looked imperious in the midfield against Toronto (so… be careful about reading too much into that) and the team will welcome back Carlos Valdes and Rais Mbohli before this weekend’s clash.

To summarize: Everything is coming up Union!

But a full squad brings fresh questions for manager Jim Curtin. Ethan White’s defensive solidity has been a catalyst for the team’s mid-season revival, but his play on the ball has been much less consistent. Out of White, Edu, Valdes, Okugo, Nogueira, and Maidana, one will ride the pine Saturday.

Who sits on Saturday

Loyalty is a good quality in manager, but not when it obscures the obvious. Jim Curtin will have to sit White against New York if only because his team is in playoff contention now. And the central defensive pairing that would play in the postseason needs time to jell. Barring a complete lack of cohesion, the playoff duo is Edu and Valdes.

Though, as Edu has had his fair share of walkabouts and whhhhaaaa moments in back (he owes MacMath a nice meal for being quick off his line last weekend), it is fair to ask whether sacrificing White’s size and consistency for the on-the-ball comfort of an Edu/Valdes partnership is a good trade. The answer is yes, both because of how the Union play offensively and how they want to play defensively.

Going forward, Philly has found a rich vein of form through an intense and relentless counterattack that exposes the limited understanding many MLS teams have of their defensive responsibilities. And though the outlet pass to start a transition often comes from midfield, it can be even more effective coming out of the back, skipping a level of defense and turning what looks like a solid defense into a retreating mess. However, that long pass from the back is very, very difficult to execute with consistency. It’s a high risk-high reward play, but for a counterattacking team the reward can be huge, and Edu and Valdes slice a bit off the risk.

An additional point in favor of Edu and Valdes is Saturday’s opponent. New York does not pressure a defensive line well. Unlike Le Toux and Wenger, who will chase from whistle to whistle, Wright-Phillips, Henry, and Peguy Luyindula are content to drop deeper and push play wide. This gives space to the backs, and any long-term Union fan can tell you that Maurice Edu’s foray’s forward will look rare by comparison once Carlos Valdes is at full confidence.

The counterargument, of course, is that the Union have a US Open Cup final sneaking up next week, and they may be inclined to save players for the club’s first chance at hardware.

Response: No way. Not with Houston on the back end of the week. Even though Houston man-handled a tired Philly team last month, three points from a game against New York remain the bigger prize.

New York state of pressure

Instead of pressuring the back line, manager Mike Petke simply asks his attacking players to funnel play wide. A new formation featuring Dax McCarty and Eric Alexander in holding roles is designed to offer low pressure help in wide areas while clogging the middle. The resultant crosses are duly handled by Jamison Olave and friends. It is far from the most advanced, intricate, or interesting defensive system, but much like Jim Curtin has in Philly, Petke is learning that the 2014 Eastern Conference rewards pragmatism first and foremost.

To be clear, the Union are better than the Red Bulls. They have a better midfield and a more practiced and proven strategy. But what the Union don’t have is an answer to a team that is determined to play for a point. The Union’s most uncertain performances have come against a Chicago team that just needed something to feel back on track, against a motivated Houston side, and at home against a Montreal squad that frustrated by going forward with all the plodding hesitancy of a toddler taking its first steps. This is what New York will seek to do.

If it ain't broke...

If it ain’t broke…

Can the Union create?

Philly can counter New York’s tactics by playing with speed in the midfield. While this advice may seem obvious for a team so reliant on the transition game, speed will actually be most important in the short passing game. Remember: this will be a tired team with precious little midfield depth. Petke’s five-man midfield relies on some modicum of ball control, since this allows his elderly stars a chance to rest. Luyindula and Henry will not chase, meaning crisp, swift ball movement will force McCarty and Alexander to stray from their holding roles or let the Union pin them deep all game.

And so we arrive at the biggest question in this match: Can Philadelphia execute the umbrella offense? At home against Toronto, they appeared on the verge of figuring out the offensive spacing required to trap a team deep in its own third, but the scoreline reflected the team’s inability to take full advantage of their pressure. The Red Bulls have a difficult schedule remaining, and coming off a midweek game they will be forced to see a tie as a good result as they gear up for the stretch run. The onus, then, is clearly on the Union to introduce a new dimension to the offense.

With everybody healthy, they have the personnel to do it. The points are there for the taking.

Executive summary
  • New York coming off a midweek win over 10-man DC.
  • New York is 2-1-2 coming off midweek games this season.
  • Henry played 89 minutes, Luyindula played 90. Cahill came on for 20.
  • Bradley Wright-Phillips left at halftime with a minor hamstring strain. Status uncertain for the weekend.
  • Roy Miller called up to Costa Rican team, will likely miss match.
  • Rais Mbohli won’t arrive back in Philly until late tomorrow night.
  • New York needs at least a point, will play like it.
  • Union have to force NY out of their shell or create from a more traditional, slowed-down offense.

11 Comments

  1. I’m hopeful that your predicted line is the one on the field…very excited to see what is our best XI out there!

  2. OneManWolfpack says:

    These two games, NY and US Open vs Seattle, are SO HUGE! It took 5 years, but other than the playoff vs Houston in 2011, these are the most meaningful games we have ever played. SO GREAT!!

  3. If the Cup is the biggest prize, take the point Saturday and limit Casey & Noguiera to the first half, subbing Ribeiro & pick among White (move Edu up & Okugo over), Lahoud/Carroll (move Okugo), or Cruz/Fred – depending on score. Might hold Cruz to rest Seba at 75. Leave points on the table so they can leave it all on the pitch Tuesday. Anything less and lose the Cup, we’ll come to regret.

    • We need 3 points from this match. We’re playing our arch-rivals, who are a point ahead of us and pushing us out of playoff position at present. I am OK with playing for 1 point against Houston next weekend. But not against the Red Bulls. They must be defeated.

      • We’d like 3, but what we need is hardware. Sak & Curtin both are signaling that Tuesday is the biggest game in franchise history. Every match on in is 6 points. 2 on Saturday aren’t critical unless we can’t win against Houston, Chicago or Columbus. In that case, we’re already done for.

  4. The energy needed to beat a really good Sounders team needs to come from the energy generated by a total performance saturday. They are not going to win out– but certain games and points matter more right now and a win over NYRB followed by hoisting the Open Cup and a one point draw or win against Houston is exactly the recipe I hope for. It might be asking a bit much…..

    • Playing in their first title game, this team won’t lack energy – adrenaline on overdrive. But as it wears on, and with Seattle ‘ s experience advantage, keep the pressure on the Sounders – been here, done this. Drag out a draw until we can seize the initiative and take the lead. Where do you get that energy if your 2 best weapons – Casey & LeToux – are dragging late because they spent themselves against NYRB? Curtin admits it’s not easy but I think he pulls key players Saturday telling them it’s all about making history Tuesday. We have time to get back 2 points.

  5. My initial reaction was that everything hinged on Open Cup, thus sacrificing 3 pts versus NYRB would be ok. After looking at the standings and schedule, the focus should be 3 pts from both and a loss to Houston again is actually ok. If you look at the teams around us in the standings NYRB is a bigger problem than houston. We have a good lead over Houston directly. This weekend Houston and Columbus play, here’s hoping its a draw. Next weekend NYRB plays Seattle, so here’s hoping after they lose the Open Cup they kick NYRB’s teeth in. Colombus and NE play that weekend as well. Toronto plays Chivas so here’s hoping the Goats continue the epic fail that is TFC. Things are lining up well for the Union this week. If the eastern conference can beat up on it’s self we can sacrifice a win against Houston. We can put all our effort into the next 2 games and fit it all together for Houston.

  6. I can’t think of a better script. Arch rival, Cup final, and perennial late-season darkhorse. Jimmy and the boys got their work cut out for them.
    .
    Bold to predict W-W-W? Na, the boys got it in them. Roll over our tired neighbors with a smart lineup, shock the world (league) with our best XI, and finish strong running on empty against a surging team.
    .
    It will be done.

  7. Philly Cheese says:

    Need to go with best XI against NYRB. Second half subs can be used earlier if we are up 2-0 at the half. Optimism showing here.

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